With Week 1 officially in the books, it is time to see how the dice fell. The second teaser play of the Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread series was another winner, while the first slate of solo bets was unfortunately 1-2. This brings the weekly and season record to 3-2.
The first week of games is often extremely unpredictable. Rust is common with so few starters playing any preseason snaps, but it’s still frustrating when money is on the line.
Thankfully, despite all the miscues, this was still a winning, profitable week.
Against The Spread: Buccaneers @ Bengals (TB +3.5 -> +10.5) WIN
The first leg of the teaser was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 at the Cincinnati Bengals. This was definitely a sweat-it-out special if there ever was one. With 5:32 remaining in the second quarter, the Bengals were already up 21-3, and it looked like it might be over early. Luckily, the Bucs showed a ton of fight, making it a competitive game that ended in a 33-27 loss, but covering the +10.5 spread.
The interesting thing is, both teams were extremely similar in nearly every statistical category. Cincinnati only ran nine more plays, had 69 more total yards, had the same number of drives, had one more penalty, and had just under three more minutes of time of possession. None of these are what decided the outcome. It all came down solely to turnovers.
Tampa Bay lost a staggering four fumbles, each one astonishingly bouncing the Bengals way. For a while, it felt like it was going to be one of those games where every single thing that could possibly go wrong was going to go wrong.
The Cincy defense deserves credit; they were aggressive, and making plays on the ball was clearly a priority. That being said, the Bucs’ ball security on all four fumbles was atrocious. Baker Mayfield alone had three of them, including one on the doorstep of the end zone and one that was returned for a touchdown. Each time, he was extremely weak with the ball and seemed like he had no sense of anyone being near him.
On the Bengals’ side, Joe Burrow did throw a pick-six, which got the Buccaneers back in the game and helped mightily with the cover, but that was their only turnover.
This is definitely a game Tampa will look back on with a lot of disappointment because they could have easily won. Even with Mayfield sporting an atrocious 27.1 QBR and having three more turnovers than Cincinnati, they only lost by six points. Throughout the game, the offense moved the ball at will, and the defense held Burrow to one TD pass, Chase Brown to 56 yards rushing, and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to a combined five catches for 71 yards.
If someone told Todd Bowles before the game that those would be the stats for the Bengals’ main offensive playmakers, he would have thrown a party. While this was a deflating loss, the Bucs should feel confident that if they clean up the ball-security issues, they have a team that can compete.
Against The Spread: Bills @ Texans (HOU +1.5 -> +8.5) WIN
The second leg of the teaser was the Houston Texans +8.5 at home against the Buffalo Bills. This game was much more of a high-scoring affair than anyone predicted. It was back and forth all day and extremely entertaining from a fan perspective. The largest lead was 24-14 in favor of the Bills with 1:29 remaining in the first half. This was the only time the Texans weren’t covering the spread, and it was short-lived, as they made it 24-21 just before halftime. They went on to lose 36-31, but more importantly, covered the +8.5 spread.
This was certainly the less stressful game of the two on the ticket, but they were similar. Like the Buccaneers, Houston played well enough to win, but turnovers killed them. CJ Stroud lost two fumbles, including one that effectively ended the game, while Buffalo didn’t have any giveaways.
The Bills had only 28 more total yards, six fewer first downs, three more penalties, nearly 13 fewer minutes of time of possession, ran 21 fewer plays, and were worse on third and fourth down conversions. The Texans clearly were able to have success, but losing the turnover battle against a top team is often too much to overcome, and that’s what happened here.
Even though Buffalo won this game, the argument could be made that they actually have more to be concerned about. Josh Allen and the offense were incredible last year too, but the defense was the problem. One game in, and it doesn’t appear that much has changed post-Sean McDermott. It’s impressive that they hung 36 points on one of the best defenses in football on the road, but they also gave up 31 to a less-than-intimidating offense.
The Texans should honestly feel encouraged by this outcome. Nobody likes to lose, but this defense is going to be elite and shouldn’t be an issue in the future. Allen is a top-three QB in the league, and sometimes he’s going to make even the best defenses look silly. It doesn’t get much easier for the unit next week when Mr. Burrow comes to town, but fans should expect an angry, much-improved showing then.
Sure, the Bills’ defense wasn’t anything special, but the Houston offense struggled against defenses of all kinds last season, and that was not the case Sunday. Stroud looked comfortable in the pocket and, aside from the two fumbles, played well enough to win. David Montgomery also seemed to have plenty left in the tank in his Texans debut when he scored two TDs on the ground and one through the air. His presence as a bell cow back will be key in taking the pressure off of Stroud and allowing him to be more of a game manager.
Against The Spread: Bears @ Panthers (CHI -3) WIN
The first single bet was the Chicago Bears -3 at the Carolina Panthers. This was an electric shootout and turned out to be the highest-scoring season opener in NFL history. Despite being a one-score game at halftime, the Bears offense never took their foot off the gas pedal and won 59-37, easily covering the spread.
Chicago’s offense looked every bit the part of the elite unit they were expected to be. They racked up 552 total yards, including 291 of them on the ground at 7.5 YPC and six touchdowns. The dominance on the ground was more prolific, but the passing game was extremely effective too. Caleb Williams was 21-of-29 passing for 269 yards and 2 TDs, and had a nearly perfect QBR of 94.9.
The prediction of the Bears’ offense taking over the game clearly came true, but the defense performed much more poorly than expected. Give credit to Bryce Young for doing all he could to keep his team in it, but the Panthers should not be dropping 37 points on any contending team.
Now, to be fair, the Chicago defense did at least force three giveaways, which won them the turnover battle three to one. That does not change the fact that they gave up 478 total yards to go along with all those points, but it did make it more manageable for the offense to overcome.
If any team can consistently win by fighting fire with fire, it’s this iteration of Da Bears.
Against The Spread: Cowboys @ Giants (DAL -3) LOSS
The second single bet was the Dallas Cowboys -3 at the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. Sadly, this was the first loss of the series this season. This was pretty much a disgusting game from start to finish for anyone backing the Cowboys. They woefully lacked physicality, intensity, and preparedness compared to the Giants. Somehow, they only lost 28-20, which may be somewhat of a moral victory for the team, but is nothing more than a disappointing loss for Dallas bettors.
New York brought all the energy, and it was immediately apparent that John Harbaugh had his new squad ready to play. They dominated the game in terms of keeping the ball. The Giants had over 13 more minutes of time of possession and 150 more total yards. It was a great performance offensively on paper, but the Cowboys’ defense was so horrendous that it’s hard to assess which played more of a role.
All offseason long, the word on the street was that this would be a much-improved defense for America’s team. One week in, that appears to be completely untrue. The number of blown coverages on simple assignments and the inability to stop the run were nauseatingly embarrassing, yet familiar. DC Christian Parker was billed as the young dynamo savior of the defense, and maybe that was unfair, but he showed no creativity with his scheme or ability to adapt on the fly. It was only one game, but this looked like the same defense as last year and gave the team zero chance to win.
The offense, while not firing on all cylinders, was not the reason for the loss. That doesn’t mean they’re without blame. Dak Prescott had an inexcusable interception that led to a Giants TD before the half and totally swung momentum. That was a killer, but overall, he played a solid game, and this was reflected in an excellent 89 QBR (third-highest of any QB in Week 1). Prescott also received little help from his star receivers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who both had costly drops.
Could the offense be better, and should it be better? 100% yes. That being said, they had two drives in the second half, and both ended in touchdowns. Possessing the ball just twice in a half is almost unheard of and, once again, the defense gave them no chance.
That was about as bad as Opening Night could have gone, but the offense will be fine in the long run. It wasn’t supposed to take this much work during the season, but if the Cowboys can just take that defense from ghastly to subpar, they have a shot at competing.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ Chiefs (DEN +2.5) LOSS
The final single bet on the docket was the Denver Broncos +2.5 at the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Regrettably, this was the second loss to finish off the week. If fans and bettors were able to regain their appetites after watching the Cowboys on SNF, the Broncos made sure to change that. They were run out of the building 31-10 in a shocking blowout defeat.
As bad as Dallas was the previous night, Denver was somehow worse. At least the Cowboys had some success on offense, but the Broncos were completely inept on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, there was a litany of red flags. They were 2-12 on third downs and had over 200 fewer total yards than KC. Individually, Bo Nix had one of the worst performances of his career and looked rattled all game. His 8.3 QBR was only better than Cooper Rush’s in Week 1. While that was a putrid showing, not all the blame falls on Nix. The so-called “best O-line in football” was manhandled at the line of scrimmage all night and set the run and pass game up for failure. Jaylen Waddle was also nonexistent in his Broncos debut. One catch for two yards, including a drop, is unacceptable for a player who cost them a first-round pick.
The defense, which was supposed to be the strength of the team, was historically bad. According to Next Gen Stats, they had a 29.8% missed tackle rate (third-worst in a single game since 2018) and 248 missed tackle yards allowed (most in a single game in their database). Sports bettors everywhere can agree that these are the types of things that only seem to happen when they have money on the game.
Even though the defense was awful, missed tackles are a correctable issue. The real concern should be with Nix and OC Davis Webb. That was not a confidence-inspiring first showing from the duo, and their schedule does not get any easier. Seven of their next eight games are against playoff teams from last year. There is no grace period, and Denver will have to get on the same page in a hurry if they have any designs on getting back to the postseason.
This was a super entertaining first week, and it was nice to see the majority of the plays go according to plan. These teasers in particular are incredibly useful when applied properly, but not many casual bettors know they exist. Luckily, these articles are here to spread the word and degeneracy throughout the world!
Time to do it all again in Week 2.
