The first Sunday slate of the NFL season is nearly here, and with it arrives more opportunities to turn entertainment into profit. The Against the Spread series has already produced one winning teaser and another that will be validated tomorrow.
Teasers are a lot of fun and a great way to gain an advantage as a sports bettor, but it’s always nice to isolate a few single games too. Week 1 can be somewhat unpredictable based on offseason additions and subtractions, and little to no preseason action for starters. At the same time, that unpredictability can also work against the sportsbooks, and they can put out spreads that aren’t what they should be. This is the time to strike.
For reference, these odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are always subject to change.
Against The Spread: Bears @ Panthers (CHI -3)
The first single bet will be the Chicago Bears -3 at the Carolina Panthers. Most people can agree that the Bears have the decisively better roster in this game. In fact, Chicago should almost be insulted that they are only favored by three points against a team that was under .500 in 2025.
The Panthers aren’t intimidating at all offensively. Reigning OROY Tetairoa McMillan is an incredibly talented receiver, but outside of him, there is a clear lack of weapons. Chuba Hubbard and Jonathon Brooks can attack a Bears defense that is susceptible to the run, but if the passing game isn’t a threat, as it often isn’t with Bryce Young, they can be bottled up.
The Panthers do have some playmakers on the defensive side, including Derrick Brown, Jaycee Horn, and free-agent signings Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips. These are high-quality defensive players, but none are game-wreckers who make bettors think twice about siding against them.
The Bears’ offense was already one of the better units in the league in Ben Johnson’s first year, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be even better now. With Caleb Williams running the show, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland are prime candidates to break out in 2026, starting in Carolina.
The Panthers’ offense isn’t setting off any fire alarms and should be a good opportunity for the Bears’ D to get off on the right foot.
Frankly, this spread seems far too low, and Carolina is being overvalued for some reason. Chicago has the clear coaching and roster advantage. They win 27-17.
Against The Spread: Cowboys @ Giants (DAL -3)
The second single bet on the slate is the Dallas Cowboys -3 at the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football. These are two teams that are expected to be much improved. The spread is probably fair in this case because of how different they are from last year, but the Cowboys are still the side to back.
Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, or “The Blue Tent Bros” as some call them, are clearly talented. The problem is how often they are off the field. How can they be trusted to cover a spread when they can’t be trusted to even finish a game healthy?
On the same note, star receiver Malik Nabers is coming back from a torn ACL and may not even play in Week 1. If the former first-round pick is out, it would be a huge blow.
The G-Men project as a fun, competitive team as the year progresses, just not in Week 1, with an all-new coaching staff and a lot of young players.
Dak Prescott in particular has had complete ownership over the Giants throughout his career. He has a 14-3 record against them, with two of those losses occurring in his rookie year a decade ago and the other in a meaningless Week 18 game last year, where he played just the first half.
The defense has been completely overhauled from top to bottom, and first-year DC Christian Parker will have the unit looking unrecognizable on Sunday Night.
This is possibly the best roster of the Prescott era. They genuinely feel and look like a different team, but until they prove it on the field, they’re still just the same old Cowboys. They get off on the right foot against a division rival in Week 1. Dallas wins 31-23.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ Chiefs (DEN +2.5)
Last but not least, the final single bet on the docket will be the Denver Broncos +2.5 at the Kansas City Chiefs. This may be the only underdog pick of the three, but quite honestly, it is baffling that KC is favored here. Sure, Arrowhead is a fantastic home-field advantage, and the Chiefs mystique is still there, but it feels like the oddsmakers got it wrong on this one.
The good news for the Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes will be back on the field Monday night. The bad news is that this Broncos defense led the league in sacks last season and is one of the last units a QB coming off an ACL wants to return against. To add insult to injury, left tackle Josh Simmons is unlikely to be able to suit up for this game, leaving Mahomes even more vulnerable.
The days of the Chiefs’ light-show offenses are in the past, and they haven’t been for a long time now.
New addition Jaylen Waddle will be a key difference-maker in this game. He joins Courtland Sutton to provide a more vertical element to the passing game and form one of the better receiver duos in the NFL.
The offensive line is still one of the best in the league and is fully healthy for Week 1. They should be able to provide Nix with time to let plays develop and create space for the underrated Denver RB trio.
The most interesting aspect of the offense to watch will be 31-year-old OC Davis Webb taking over play-calling duties. While surprising, there is no chance Sean Payton would have given up that responsibility to Webb if he didn’t believe he was ready and it was best for the team.
Pat Surtain II can take away Rice, or an entire side of the field, and Nik Bonitto can wreck the game coming off the edge.
Defense travels, the Broncos are plainly the better team at this juncture, and they’re getting points for some reason. They ride into Kansas City and “upset” their nemesis. Denver wins 21-18.
The only thing that’s left to do is to play the damn games. Time to win some bets!
