The Against the Spread series sadly suffered its first losing week in over a month in Week 8. Losing is always frustrating, but it’s even worse when it feels like the read was correct, and unforeseen circumstances took over.
At the same time, there is a level of acceptance that eventually arrives. Injuries are unfortunately a part of sports and sports betting, and that’s just the way it is.
It doesn’t mean it’s any less unfair…
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Ravens @ Bills (BAL +3 -> +10) LOSS*
The first leg of the teaser was the Baltimore Ravens (+10) at the Buffalo Bills. This was just a sickening loss that wholeheartedly deserves an asterisk next to it.
Literally from the first snap, this game was an absolute nightmare for Ravens fans and bettors alike when Lamar Jackson, fresh off a three-game absence, injured his right thumb. He would leave the game after just the one snap and not return.
Truthfully, even with Jackson being ruled out, there was full confidence that Tyler Huntley could still make this a competitive game. It obviously wasn’t ideal, but with the +10 cushion and having started the last three games, the sky wasn’t falling yet. Then, it was.
Less than a minute into the second quarter, Huntley had to leave the game with an injury too. This meant emergency third-string quarterback and rookie undrafted free agent Joe Fagnano was the last man standing at the position. This is when it was apparent that it was fully time to panic.
It wouldn’t be right to criticize the poor kid at quarterback because he clearly isn’t ready to play in the NFL. Somehow, Baltimore was only down 16-10 early in the third quarter, but it was only downhill from there. The offense just couldn’t get anything going, and for some reason Derrick Henry was limited to 11 carries. The curious playcalling on offense, combined with a defense that was eventually beaten down physically and mentally from being on the field all game, led to this ultimately being a bloodbath.
The Bills weren’t even particularly sharp. They committed 10 penalties, had multiple turnovers, and were 4/14 on third downs. They just ended up going against a practice squad QB. If Jackson, or even Huntley, plays the entire game, this is undoubtedly a Ravens cover. This game doesn’t require more analysis than that.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Chiefs @ Broncos (DEN +1.5 -> +8.5) WIN
The second leg of the teaser was the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos (+8.5). With the Ravens spoiling things in the morning, this game was inconsequential, but it was still nice to be right.
This one went refreshingly according to plan, and both starting quarterbacks played the entire game! It was close throughout, but the Chiefs did have an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter. Even then, though, it never really felt like they were in control, or that the Broncos were in danger of not covering the spread.
Over the last two seasons, Denver has made a habit of relying on late-game heroics to secure wins. This past Sunday was no different, as they went on a 15-0 run in the fourth to storm past their arch rivals.
It was an evenly played game for the most part, but it came down to penalties and timely kicking. Kansas City committed five more penalties for 60 more yards, and Harrison Butker’s missed field goal led to what would be the game-deciding touchdown drive. To be fair, it was a 54-yard kick, but the miss gave the Broncos a short field and made their job a lot easier. That was Butker’s sixth missed field goal of the season, and his fifth from 50+ yards. It may be Justin Tucker time in KC sooner rather than later.
The Broncos are now in first place in the AFC West, but it’s shaping up to be a dogfight to the end. It’s clear that both they and the Chiefs are good teams; however, much like many other teams around the league, it isn’t clear how good they are.
Denver has talent, but is Bo Nix going to be able to play well consistently and not wait until the fourth quarter to wake up every week? Kansas City has championship pedigree, but do they have the firepower on either side of the ball to compete with hungry younger teams? The NFL is more wide open than it’s been in a long time, and both these teams feel like they have a chance to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. It’s definitely possible, but there’s a reason that game is played in February and not November.
Against The Spread: Browns @ Steelers (PIT -3.5, Buy 0.5 Point -> -3) WIN
The first solo play of the week was the Cleveland Browns at the Pittsburgh Steelers (-3). Buying the 0.5 point didn’t end up being necessary, but it was better to be smart than regret it later.
This was a nice no-sweat win, as the Steelers dominated from start to finish. They never trailed and looked like the far superior team. It’s always easy to say this in hindsight, but this was an easy read. With history on their side, and extra motivation after losing to the Browns a few weeks prior, it was clear that this was not a game they were going to let slip away.
Aaron Rodgers did not have a good game by any means, and it didn’t matter one bit. Most of the time, when a team’s quarterback is barely above 50% on completions, throws for under 200 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception, they don’t win. Luckily for Pittsburgh, the running game and defense took over.
Jaylen Warren was the leader on the ground with 17 carries for 143 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers ran for an even 200 yards as a team with 6.1 yards per carry and three touchdowns. They might not be able to be this prolific every game, but this is the formula for their offense to be successful. Warren and Rico Dowdle are a severely underrated running back duo, and need to be combining for 30 to 40 carries week in and week out.
The Steel Curtain was alive and well in this one. With eight sacks, seven TFL, two fumbles recovered, and just six points allowed, the Steelers’ defense was a force to reckon with. They only gave up 34 yards on the ground and forced the Browns offense to pass way more than they are equipped for, and that was a major key to their victory.
Pittsburgh is now 6-2 and in first place in the AFC North heading into their bye week. Don’t look now, but everyone’s favorite coach and quarterback to make fun of are looking pretty, pretty, pretty good so far. Make sure to read that last part in Larry David’s voice.
Against The Spread: Vikings @ Lions (MIN +3.5) LOSS
The last bet of the week was the Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at the Detroit Lions. This one felt like a dangerous pick from the jump, but a deep respect for Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores outweighed the concerns.
While this was obviously still a loss, it didn’t feel anywhere near as bad as the Ravens loss. That’s because there weren’t two ridiculously flukey injuries that changed the game completely, but that’s already been talked about enough.
The Vikings played exactly the same way they have been playing all season. Their offensive ineptitude just finally caught up to them against a more talented team. The defense left it all on the field and played extremely admirably against an elite Lions offense, but it was clear at the end that they had just run out of gas. Detroit had the ball for more than 11 more minutes, and the fatigue showed in Minnesota’s defense in the second half.
The Lions were smart in their offensive approach. They knew that Flores’ calling card is rushing the passer, but the best way to stop a pass rush is to not need to pass. Jahmyr Gibbs ran rampant with 23 carries for 153 yards and a touchdown, and the team ran for a total of 230 yards on 39 attempts. This is the blueprint for neutralizing the Vikings’ pass rush, but it’s a lot easier said than done, and they still were only able to muster 19 points. Jared Goff was also still sacked four times, held below 200 yards passing, and threw his first interception of the season. Despite the loss, this is still a defense to be feared around the league.
The Vikings offense wasn’t horrible this past Sunday, but it’s the lack of any signs of improvement that is concerning. Kyler Murray looks like a shell of himself and appears to be nothing like the electric dual-threat he was earlier in his career. There is no consistent run game to lean on, with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason being a mixed bag of results. Justin Jefferson seems to be growing frustrated with the stagnant passing attack. This may have only been their first loss, but with the Bills, Packers, and Niners up next, this could easily end up being a four-game losing streak.
Every week is a learning lesson, but honestly, this one is getting thrown in the trash. The reads are still on point, and as long as that’s the case, the wins will come with them. Week 9 can’t come soon enough.
