The Against the Spread saga was underwhelming in Week 7, with a win, a loss, and a draw. While it was still the fourth non-losing slate in a row, it didn’t feel as rewarding.
The point of any competition is to win, not just avoid losing. Winning ways make their return in this week’s segment.
As always, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are subject to change. Here is the Week 8 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Ravens @ Bills (BAL +3 -> +10)
The first bet of the week is a seven-point, two-team teaser, starting with the Baltimore Ravens (+3) at the Buffalo Bills. The teaser takes the spread from Ravens +3 to +10.
This should be one of the best games the NFL has to offer on Sunday. In addition to being highly entertaining, this is somewhat of a must-win game for Baltimore if they want to stay in the AFC North race. They are in danger of losing their third straight game and dropping to .500 on the year. Lamar Jackson is back after missing the last three contests and it is put up or shut up time for him and his team.
The Ravens will be a highly motivated bunch when they take the field in Buffalo. The last two losses have both involved massive second-half implosions to division rivals, and the media is already starting to question if Jesse Minter is the right man for the job. Jackson’s toughness and future with the franchise have also been called into question. It is undeniable that he is a one-of-a-kind talent at quarterback when healthy, but this is another instance where he’s had a strange injury that the team didn’t seem to think was as significant as he did. This is an opportunity for the former MVP to remind the rest of the league of what he’s capable of and get the Ravens’ season back on track.
The Bills are an intimidating opponent on offense, but defensively, they are still a mess. They have given up 29 points or more in five of their six games. The only game where they didn’t was against the winless Chargers, and that isn’t exactly an achievement to hang their hat on. It is impressive that Buffalo is 5-1 despite the defense, but it isn’t sustainable. Their largest margin of victory this season is 10 points, and that won’t be surpassed this week.
The Ravens give an inspired effort in Buffalo, but ultimately come up just short. They cover easily, but are defeated 37-34 in a thriller.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Chiefs @ Broncos (DEN +1.5 -> +8.5)
The second game on the teaser is the Kansas City Chiefs at the Denver Broncos (+1.5). With the teaser in place, the spread goes from Broncos +1.5 to +8.5.
This is a major revenge spot for Denver, and they should look like a completely different team compared to their first matchup. The Chiefs utterly outplayed and humiliated them in primetime, and Sean Payton has certainly been reminding his team of this all week. To their credit, they are 5-1 since that Week 1 debacle and have rebounded nicely to keep themselves in contention for the AFC West crown.
Kansas City was beaten down in Seattle this past Sunday Night for their first loss of the season. This isn’t taken lightly because Patrick Mahomes and crew will definitely be laser-focused on getting back in the win column, but this is plainly a bad spot for them.
The Broncos are 16-1 at home in the regular season at home since Week 8, 2024. That is an incredible accomplishment that shows the quality of football they play and the comfort they feel in their own stadium. The elevation is also a real factor for opposing teams, especially with older players like KC has.
Rashee Rice is returning for the Chiefs, but he is matched by the return of Pat Surtain II. If PS2 can take him away, the passing game is severely limited, and the defense will be able to key on stopping Kenneth Walker on the ground.
This will be a gritty, hard-fought AFC West classic. The Broncos defend home field and win outright 17-16.
Against The Spread: Browns @ Steelers (PIT -3.5, Buy 0.5 Point -> -3)
The first solo play is the Cleveland Browns at the Pittsburgh Steelers(-3.5). -3.5 is always a dangerous line and feels like it ends up costing bettors much of the time. It’s better to play it safe and buy the line down to -3.
Much like with the Chiefs and Broncos game, the read here is that this is the teams’ second time playing each other this year, and they will split the series. It is well documented that while the Browns are far exceeding expectations so far, they play much better at home, where they are undefeated. They eeked out a three-point win on a short week against Pittsburgh when they first met in Week 4, but things will look a lot different this time around.
The Steelers have won four of their last five, including the last three in a row. They aren’t a flashy team by any means, but Mike McCarthy has them winning games, and that’s all that can be asked of a head coach. He was an overlooked hire this offseason, but with a win this Sunday, he’ll have Pittsburgh 6-2 and in first place nearly halfway through the schedule. He deserves some long-overdue respect.
There is also a historical stat in play that is heavily in the Steelers’ favor. They have a 22-game regular-season home winning streak against the Browns, and the average margin of victory in those games is 11.3 points. This sounds almost too outrageous to be true, but it is.
Streaks are made to be broken, but it won’t happen this week. The Steelers get revenge on the Browns and claim sole possession of the AFC North. They win a battle, 23-16.
Against The Spread: Vikings @ Lions (MIN +3.5)
The final bet of the week is the Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at the Detroit Lions.
This can be seen as somewhat of a risky pick because, while the Vikings are 6-0, they haven’t been impressive in any way on offense. Their defense has been able to carry them so far, but against a potent offense like the Lions, it may only be a matter of time before the dam breaks.
This will be a true battle of strength on strength, and weakness on weakness. Minnesota, with their elite defense and anemic offense, and Detroit with the exact opposite. The game will likely be decided by which team can make the fewest mistakes and keep their weaker unit from having to make more plays than necessary.
The Lions’ aggressive and sometimes reckless playing and coaching style can get them into trouble against a disciplined team like the Vikings. There were several mistakes made against the Packers last week that could have easily cost them the game, but they were let off the hook. Minnesota’s identity has been to play conservatively on offense and let their defense change the game with turnovers. That may work against lower-tier teams, but the Lions are a different animal. This is the game for Kevin O’Connell and Kyler Murray to show that they are capable of winning without the defense putting them on their back.
The Vikings have been on a heater in recent memory. They have won 11 straight going back to last season, but that streak is going to come to an end this Sunday. Minnesota covers the +3.5 spread, but suffers its first loss of the season. The Lions win 20-18 and remain undefeated at home.
The winning streak restarts this week!
