The Week 7 edition of Against the Spread was more frustrating than usual. It wasn’t because the reads were so wrong, but because they were on the right track and didn’t work out.
A 1-1-1 week isn’t the end of the world, but it feels a lot worse when it could have easily been another undefeated run. That being said, everyone knows the only thing that takes away the sting of a bet not hitting is complaining about the teams not holding up their end of the bargain.
Here is why all the Week 7 picks were perfect before being sabotaged by inexplicable play and coaching.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Colts @ Vikings (MIN -6.5 -> +0.5) WIN
The first leg of the teaser was the Indianapolis Colts at the Minnesota Vikings (+0.5). This was reminiscent of nearly every other Vikings win this season: painfully stagnant offense and excellent defense.
For essentially the entire game, the cover was far from guaranteed. It started about as poorly as possible when Minnesota was stopped on fourth down near midfield, which then resulted in the Colts immediately going up 7-0. It seemed like this could be one of those games where nothing makes sense and everything goes the wrong way.
This was another ugly one, and the Vikes struggled to put up points once again and didn’t hold a lead until the fourth quarter. The defense was incredible as usual and only gave up three points after the first drive, but this is not a sustainable way to win. Indianapolis moved the ball decently at times and missed two more than makeable field goals. The Vikings also had a field goal blocked. They were lucky to escape with a win.
This game appears to have been the straw that broke the camel’s back for the Colts. Since the loss, Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner have been dealt away for picks, and Josh Downs has requested a trade of his own. It remains to be seen if the crown jewel, Jonathan Taylor, will follow suit. Indy doesn’t own their first-round pick in this coming draft, and even darker days seem to be ahead of them.
The lesson from this game is that this could have easily been the Vikings’ first loss of the year. With their schedule intensifying in the coming weeks, the offense is going to have to step up in a major way.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Chiefs @ Seahawks (KC +3 -> +10) LOSS
The second leg of the teaser was the Kansas City Chiefs (+10) at the Seattle Seahawks. In every bet, the expectation is never to lose, but this was a truly shocking result.
This was perhaps the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era in KC that they looked like they were hopelessly outgunned and outmanned on offense. It’s not as if Seattle was setting the world on fire coming into Sunday night, as they were a 3-3 team. They had lost three of their last four and hadn’t played particularly well in any of them. These data points, along with the idea of having the undefeated Chiefs +10, made it feel like a slam dunk of a pick.
The Kansas City defense does deserve some respect for the effort they put out there. They kept them in the game all the way into the fourth quarter, but eventually it was clear that the unit was exhausted and beaten down. The Seahawks had 410 yards of offense, 24 first downs, and were 11 for 16 on third downs, but the stats don’t tell the full story. That defense battled, and they were not to blame for the defeat.
Seattle has an elite defense, but the Chiefs’ offensive performance was atrocious. Kenneth Walker was completely bottled up and forced the passing game to play a bigger role than it is currently equipped to, which was exactly what the Seahawks’ defense wanted. With both starting tackles and Rashee Rice out, it was clearly too much for Mahomes to overcome. He isn’t without blame, as he did not play well, but without Rice there isn’t another NFL-caliber receiver on the roster. Xavier Worthy would be a great one if he didn’t have to get open or catch the ball, but those are somewhat key aspects of the job.
The Chiefs certainly shouldn’t be written off after this debacle, but their offense needs help. The kicking position also looks to be in question, as Harrison Butker missed his fourth and fifth kicks of the season in this game as well. He missed five all of last year and is two of six from 50+ yards so far. With Justin Tucker being signed to the practice squad, it is clear that Kansas City will not be patient if Butker keeps struggling. At least if he is ultimately cut, he can spend more time at home with his family. He knows better than anyone about the joys of domestic life.
Against The Spread: Browns @ Titans (CLE -2.5) WIN
The first single bet of the week was the Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at the Tennessee Titans. This game was closer and higher scoring than initially anticipated, but at the end of the day, a win is a win.
It was a less-than-ideal start for the Browns, as they were almost immediately down 14-0 to an inferior Titans team. Luckily, that deficit was short-lived, and Cleveland ended the first half on a 17-0 run. It was almost as if they needed to give up those two touchdowns to get serious and stop taking their opponent lightly.
The Browns are off to a great start, but they aren’t built to overcome double-digit leads. Had they been playing a better team, this game could have been over at 14-0. With that in mind, it was still impressive to see how well they responded to some early adversity. It was also a good sign to see the Cleveland offense find success through the air and on the ground. Deshaun Watson threw for just over 300 yards, and the return of Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson revitalized the run game as they combined for 141 yards rushing and two touchdowns.
The Browns’ offensive output on Sunday is worth celebrating, but this team is built on defense, and that performance was concerning. Being on the road is never easy in the NFL, but it isn’t an excuse to give up over 300 yards of offense to a team like the Titans. Tony Pollard is a solid back, but to allow him to run for 125 yards and three touchdowns when the passing game isn’t threatening at all is inexcusable.
Cleveland being in first place in the AFC North through seven games is one of the best stories in football. It will be interesting to see if their success can be maintained, or if it will all come crashing down in an extremely Browns-like fashion.
Against The Spread: Packers @ Lions (GB +3) PUSH
The last bet of the week was the Green Bay Packers (+3) at the Detroit Lions. This was an entertaining game from start to finish, but from a betting perspective, it was a bit anticlimactic, ending in a push.
A push is almost always a little disappointing because it means a win was so near, but it also means a loss was too. With the multiple head-scratching decisions and plays that unfolded in this game, it’s almost fitting that neither team covered. It honestly seemed like neither team had any interest in winning in general.
Looking at the stat sheet, it was a reasonably evenly played game. In the end, it came down to who made fewer mistakes, and there were a lot of them. The Lions did lose the turnover battle two to one, and did commit the only turnover that led to points, but it didn’t decide the game. That’s because the Packers left six points on the field with two missed close-range field goals. The rookie Trey Smack has already missed five kicks this year, and may not get many more opportunities if he can’t figure things out in a hurry.
Aside from the special teams issues, another potential cause for concern is that the running game still struggled even with the return of Josh Jacobs. As a team, Green Bay only had 19 carries for 60 yards, and they were completely unbalanced with 45 pass attempts. Matt LaFleur’s offense, as most offenses do, functions best when it is able to establish the run. This was only Jacobs first game back, and his workload should increase each week, but the Packers are going to need him tremendously going forward, especially as it gets colder up north.
From the Lions’ perspective, Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness is going to get them in trouble. Yes, it’s his identity, but there’s a fine line between being aggressive and believing in his team, and being reckless and putting his team in bad situations. He went for two fourth downs on Sunday that were blatantly irresponsible. One was a 4th and 5 on the Green Bay six-yard line, and the other was a 4th and 1 on their own 22. Neither attempt was successful, and obviously Detroit won anyway, but that was borderline coaching malpractice, and Campbell was lucky those decisions didn’t cost them the game. Otherwise, there could have been some uncomfortable conversations being had about his future right now.
The winning-week streak may have ended at three, but 1-1-1 isn’t a losing week! That’s four straight weeks without a losing record. That’s a nice caveat, but it’s time to get back to winning ways in Week 8.
