The Against the Spread series is on a roll after a third straight winning week and a first clean sweep. Having a legitimate winning streak going is a good confidence builder, but it means nothing if it isn’t sustained.
The board is looking real clear right now. Looks can be deceiving, but this is shaping up to be another successful weekend.
As usual, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are subject to change. Here is the Week 6 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Colts @ Vikings (MIN -6.5 -> +0.5)
The first play of the week is a seven-point, two-team teaser, starting with the Indianapolis Colts at the Minnesota Vikings (-6.5). The teaser takes the spread from Vikings -6.5 to +0.5.
This matchup almost seems too good to be true for Minnesota. Usually, if something sounds too good to be true, it is, but not this time. The Vikings are coming off a bye, are at home, and are as close to full strength as possible. Aaron Jones has done well maintaining the ground game by himself, but now Jordan Mason is expected to return from IR to strengthen the backfield even more.
The Minnesota offense still isn’t set to blow the doors off of anyone, but they don’t have to. Their defense is potentially the best in football, and after a full week off, they will be chomping at the bit to get back on the field. Daniel Jones can be easily overwhelmed with pressure, and Brian Flores will be sure to bring plenty of it. His blitz-heavy approach can befuddle even the best quarterbacks, and with Jones’ clear lack of mobility since his achilles injury, things could get ugly for him.
The Colts are a train wreck of an organization currently. They just fired their general manager about five years later than they should have, their coach is most likely up next, and they’re a bad team without a franchise QB or draft capital. Any one of those issues could be crippling to a franchise, and they have them all at once. For this week, Indy will continue to be without their top pass catchers, Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren, and now CB Sauce Gardner has been ruled out as well.
Even at full strength, this would be a mismatch for the Colts. As long as Jonathan Taylor is held in check, the Vikes’ defense should dominate. With the Lions up next on the schedule in Week 8, one could see how this could be considered a trap game, but Kevin O’Connell and Flores won’t allow the team to put the cart before the horse in this spot.
The Vikings control this one from start to finish on defense, and their offense does enough to secure a comfortable win. They send the Colts spiraling even further and are victorious by a score of 24-12.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Chiefs @ Seahawks (KC +3 -> +10)
The second game on the teaser is the Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at the Seattle Seahawks. With the seven-point teaser, the spread goes from Chiefs +3 to +10.
This has the potential to be the best game of the week and will give all NFL fans a reason to look forward to Sunday night. The read here is that these are two high-caliber teams and the game should be decided by one score no matter who ends up winning.
The Seahawks have not looked that impressive at all this year. It is apparent that they are still incredibly talented, but it just isn’t all coming together for them just yet. They’re 3-3, have lost two games in a row, and now have the challenge of facing an undefeated Chiefs team with their eyes on a statement win. Even though they’re at home, this isn’t exactly a great spot to get back on track.
Sam Darnold is flat-out not playing well enough right now. He’s already thrown seven interceptions and has a QBR of just 42. The lack of a run game has been crippling to his success thus far, and it won’t receive any help this week with Zach Charbonnet not being activated from IR. The key to beating Seattle is no secret. Make Darnold carry the offense, and he will falter and turn the ball over. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is perhaps the best receiver in the league, but if the Chiefs can limit his impact, there are no other significant offensive playmakers on their roster. If only Seattle had a star running back they could rely on, that would be super helpful…
The Chiefs may be 5-0, but they are definitely not without concerns. Rashee Rice and right tackle Jaylon Moore will both be out for this one, and are significant losses. That being said, there is no reason why they can’t be overcome. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid know how to win in a variety of ways, no matter how many pieces they’re missing. With the addition of Kenneth Walker, Kansas City is a run-first offense now anyway, and he will without a doubt be looking to make his former team look even more foolish for not valuing him.
For essentially his entire career, Mahomes has made anyone who bets against him or his team look foolish. That risk will not be taken this Sunday. This will be an incredibly hard-fought contest, but as they so often have over the years, the Chiefs will come out on top. They go into Seattle and beat the champs outright, 26-23.
Against The Spread: Browns @ Titans (CLE -2.5)
The first single play of this week is the Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at the Tennessee Titans.
This is one of those games that probably won’t get too much love on the RedZone channel. Sure, neither of these teams play an aesthetically pleasing brand of football, but that doesn’t make this any less of a lock. The thinking here is that the Browns are playing good football and getting healthier, while the Titans are a bad team that got a rare win last week, and lightning won’t strike twice in a row.
Cleveland will be getting Quinshon Judkins and Mason Graham back, as they are both off the injury report and will provide massive boosts for both sides of the ball. The offense as a whole struggled greatly last week, but that can be largely attributed to Judkins’ absence. He is the bell cow back, and not having him available threw the entire unit out of sync. Having him back and potentially fellow RB Dylan Sampson as well will take a lot of pressure off of Deshaun Watson and the passing game.
It’s helpful that the offense is at least getting one playmaker back, but they are not the strength of the team anyway. The Browns’ identity is built on defense, and this is an opportunity for them to flex their muscles. The Titans are a weak team, but more specifically, they have an inept offense. They have only scored 20 or more points in two of their six games, and Cam Ward is not showing signs of improvement. He’s only surpassed 200 yards passing once this year, and does not look anything like the franchise quarterback he was drafted to be.
Cleveland on the road is not as intimidating as they are at home, but that should not be a problem in this matchup. Tennessee does not possess a serious home field advantage, and is already at a talent disadvantage. This is a game the Browns cannot afford to lose if they want to keep pace in an ultra-competitive AFC North, and they will not overlook their opponent.
The Land’s team has already overachieved so far, and they’re going to keep the run going this Sunday. They come into Nashville and bottle up the Titans. The Browns win 20-12 and improve to a shocking 5-2.
Against The Spread: Packers @ Lions (GB +3)
The last bet of the week is the Green Bay Packers (+3) at the Detroit Lions.
This should be one of the best games of the week. The Packers and Lions have been one of the best rivalries in the league for years now, and should not disappoint when they square off on Sunday afternoon. Green Bay comes into this one riding high after three straight wins, while Detroit is at home and feeling fresh after a bye week. It wouldn’t be surprising if either team won this divisional showdown, so when in doubt, take the points.
The Lions have been getting a lot of love from the media ahead of this game. It’s almost as if a decent performance against the mighty Cardinals and then the bye week made them forget about how atrocious their defense is. Brian Branch is expected to make his return, and while he’s an incredible player, this is his first game off an achilles injury, and he won’t be anywhere near 100%. Branch will be a difference-maker later in the season, but not right away.
The Packers are playing great football and have seemingly turned their season around in the last three weeks. Jordan Love has been balling, and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are looking like a receiving duo that teams will have to reckon with for years to come.
The problem with the Green Bay offense so far has been the complete lack of a running game. Through six games, their leading rusher is MarShawn Lloyd with 48 carries for 122 yards, which is dismal. Help is on the way, though, as Josh Jacobs is set to make his season debut in Detroit. He most likely won’t receive a full workload, but just having him available at all will be a major lift.
This game could go a long way towards shaping the playoff picture at the end of the year, and both teams will be giving full effort. This is going to be a shootout, and points will not be at a premium. The Lions defend home field and win, but do not cover. They win a thriller 34-32.
Here’s to keeping the streak alive!
