Week 6 saw the Against the Spread series achieve its third consecutive winning week and first undefeated slate! This was a long time coming, and the board is looking crystal clear right now.
Ironically, the pick that seemed to be the easiest lock was the Niners, and they ended up almost collapsing horrendously. Luckily, what is almost losing known as? Winning.
Here is a more cheery than usual recap of how the Week 6 picks played out.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Texans @ Jaguars (HOU +2.5 -> +9.5) WIN
The first leg of the teaser was the Houston Texans (+9.5) at the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, England. This was one of the best games of the week and showed that the Texans are far from dead and buried.
Houston was never in danger of losing the cover, and this contest seemed destined to be a photo finish from the start. Their largest deficit was four, their largest lead was ten, and they never trailed in the second half. The Jaguars did not go quietly into the night, and it was clear that there were two teams deserving of winning on that field.
This was an extremely evenly played game, and the stat sheet shows exactly that. Nobody should be surprised by how close this one was, but the amount of points scored was certainly unexpected. Both offenses have played well this season, but it just did not profile as a shootout because of the teams’ familiarity with each other.
The quarterbacks were undoubtedly the stars, and they were dialed in all day long. In a game with great pass rushers and questionable offensive lines on both sides, there were miraculously zero sacks. CJ Stroud threw for 312 yards with three touchdowns and one interception, while Trevor Lawrence threw for 306 yards with four touchdowns and an interception as well. Obviously, both put up incredible numbers, but Stroud’s play was the difference. Last year his team was winning games in spite of him, but on Sunday he was putting them on his back.
The Texans are officially back on track after back-to-back wins. If Stroud can keep up this level of play, and the defense can return to their elite form, this is going to be a group that nobody wants to see down the stretch. This isn’t going to be the Jags division for the taking without a fight.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Commanders @ 49ers (SF -7.5 -> -0.5) WIN
The second leg of the teaser was the Washington Commanders at the San Francisco 49ers (-0.5). The relief of winning a bet that went from an easy cover to an edge-of-the-seat sweat-it-out special is difficult to put into words.
This game seemed like it was all but over when the Niners were up 23-3 late in the third quarter. Surely Kyle Shanahan’s teams have never faltered when they possess a big lead. There was absolutely nothing to worry about, right? Wrong.
This was an extremely uncharacteristic finish to a game by the 49ers. They put up three points in the entire second half, and in the fourth quarter had three drives which were all three-and-outs. The offensive struggles could partially be explained by Mike Evans’ exit, but that unit should not completely fall apart without a 33-year-old receiver. Yes, they have a mountain of injuries at receiver already, but that second-half performance was unacceptable.
Penalties were also a major issue for San Francisco, as they committed 11 of them. This was another unusual occurrence because going in, the Niners were tied for the fewest per game. A lot of the sloppiness and late-game shenanigans can likely be attributed to getting complacent and overlooking a lesser opponent. This is a bad habit, and one that a veteran team with Super Bowl aspirations can’t allow to persist.
Despite the horrendous finish and near-disastrous loss, the defense did come up clutch when they were needed most to seal the victory. This will be a good lesson for the Niners to learn from, and it will have them even more focused in Atlanta next week. They are still clearly the class of the NFC.
Against The Spread: Ravens @ Browns (CLE +3) WIN
The first single play on the board was the Baltimore Ravens at the Cleveland Browns. This was exactly the classic AFC North slugfest it was expected to be.
Just as predicted, scoring was at an absolute premium. The Ravens went up 10-0 immediately, but then the Browns’ defense dug in their heels and didn’t allow a point for the remainder of the game. They played incredibly tough, but it was ultimately Baltimore’s mistakes that led to their demise. A missed field goal and a Derrick Henry fumble killed all momentum and led to a 10-0 Cleveland run to end the game.
This is a difficult game to find things to talk about because there plainly was just not a lot happening. In low-scoring affairs, there are often multiple turnovers to discuss, but not here. Aside from the Henry fumble, there weren’t any other giveaways. Two of the busiest men out there were the punters. They both had seven punts for over 300 yards each. It’s never a good sign for entertainment purposes when punting yardage is being mentioned, but that’s the type of game this was.
Even though the Ravens were defeated, this may be a rare occasion where both teams feel alright about the result. The Browns obviously feel fantastic because they’re now 4-2 and currently in first place in a division where most people expect them to finish last. That’s still very much on the table, but through six weeks the AFC North runs through Cleveland.
Baltimore is also 4-2, and just split two tough road games with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. They know they have a competitive team, and just need to get Lamar Jackson back to fully healthy. This was a bad spot for them, and it wasn’t a season-derailing loss by any means. The Ravens will take it in stride and be a force to reckon with in the AFC before the season is over.
Against The Spread: Steelers @ Buccaneers (PIT -2.5) WIN
The final bet of the bunch was the Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Just as predicted, this game was an odd one. It took a mixture of clutch plays from the Steelers and pure incompetence from the Bucs, but a win is a win no matter how it comes about.
It’s hard not to feel bad for rookie undrafted quarterback Jalon Daniels. His team had a 16-3 lead heading into the fourth quarter, and it looked like he was about to collect his second straight win in the NFL. Thankfully for Steelers bettors, Daniels threw two late interceptions, and the Bucs were outscored 23-3 in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Though it was an impressive finish by the Steelers, they did not play particularly well offensively. Their pass and run numbers were completely unbalanced. This can mostly be due to the fact that they were trailing for most of the game, but having more than double the amount of passes compared to rushes is rarely ever a winning formula. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle are a more than capable running back duo, and they combined for 21 carries for 90 yards. That’s better than four yards per carry, and they need to be utilized more frequently if Pittsburgh wants to win games against better opponents.
Aaron Rodgers did attempt 49 passes on Sunday, which, as already stated, is far too many. With Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson out multiple games, there was concern about the receiving core outside of DK Metcalf. That ended up not being an issue at all, as Metcalf and rookie Germie Bernard secured 11 catches each. Bernard has 17 receptions on 21 targets for 167 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. He has clearly earned Rodgers’ trust, and if he can continue to emerge as a consistent playmaker, the Steelers’ offense becomes much more reliable.
This perfect slate marks a third straight winning week, and the start of a legitimate win streak. Momentum is building, and it will be looking to carry over to the Week 7 picks!
