The Against the Spread chronicles are riding high after a second consecutive winning slate in Week 5. While back-to-back winning weeks are a nice momentum builder, it’s not a real winning streak until it gets to three.
Something happening once is lucky, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. This is where the pattern fully takes shape.
As always, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are subject to change. Here is the Week 6 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Texans @ Jaguars (HOU +2.5 -> +9.5)
The first play of the week is a seven-point, two-team teaser, starting with the Houston Texans (+2.5) at the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The teaser takes the spread from Texans +2.5 to +9.5.
This is a divisional matchup and should come down to the very end. Houston has gotten off to a rough 1-4 start, but they are better than their record shows. The London aspect is somewhat concerning, as the Jags have already been there for the last week, but the Texans have their backs against the wall. Coach Demeco Ryans won’t allow the long travel to be a distraction for the team.
Houston starters Jalen Pitre and David Montgomery are out for this game, and while these are significant injuries, they aren’t dealbreakers for the teaser. Pitre is a stud at safety, but this defense is filled with playmakers and can make up for his absence. Linebacker Henry To’oTo’o is set to return from IR and will give the unit a boost as well. Montgomery is another noteworthy absence, but frankly, the running game has already been a big issue. He hasn’t been as effective as expected, and more carries for the younger, more dynamic Woody Marks may jump-start the ground game.
The Jaguars also have some important players of their own out in this game. Starting cornerback Montaric Brown and starting left tackle Anton Harrison have both been ruled out. These injuries are arguably more detrimental than those of the Texans.
CJ Stroud has actually been throwing the ball well this season and is fourth in the league in passing yards. Missing a starting corner could spell major trouble for Jacksonville on Sunday. To add even more stress, the Texans are one of the worst teams to face when missing any offensive linemen, but especially a left tackle. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will be looking to wreck the game from start to finish.
The Jags are a quality team, but they have shown a propensity to self-destruct with penalties in the last two weeks. The Texans are desperate and know that they can’t afford to lose many more games. With Ryans back calling the defense, the team has a different feel, and a ferocious battle from both teams should be expected. This game profiles as a one-score affair, and either team could come away victorious. The prediction is that the Texans upset the Jags in London and show they’re still serious about contending. They win 20-19.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Commanders @ 49ers (SF -7.5 -> -0.5)
The second game on the teaser is the Washington Commanders at the San Francisco 49ers (-7.5). With the seven-point teaser, the spread becomes 49ers -0.5.
On paper, this Monday night game should be the exact opposite of last week’s overtime thriller. The Niners are undoubtedly the much better team, and as long as they don’t overlook their opponent, they should have no problem winning this one. There is always the chance of a letdown after an emotional win against a rival on the road, but San Francisco has the look of a team on a mission right now.
The Commanders are coming off one of the most embarrassing ties in NFL history. It was so bad it really should have counted as a loss, quite honestly. A blunder like that feels like something impossible for a team to come back from. Dan Quinn is most likely coaching his last games for Washington, and Jayden Daniels’ future as their starting quarterback is dubious at best. A primetime matchup with an undefeated team across the country is not at all what they need at the moment.
Injuries are clearly not slowing the Niners down at all, but they may actually be getting some good news on that front for once. Nick Bosa has not been ruled out yet and has a chance to make his return Monday night. With or without him, the 49ers should be more than equipped to get the job done, but he would be a nice weapon to have.
Washington is not a good team. This will be revenge for them ruining the Week 3 teaser when they inexplicably beat the Seahawks. Clearly, Seattle is not the team they were supposed to be, and the Commanders will not have the same success in Santa Clara on Monday night.
This one is as simple as one team is trending upwards, and one team is trending down the toilet. It’s an easy decision. Brock Purdy adds to his MVP case and dominates a lowly Washington squad. 49ers win soundly, 37-17.
Against The Spread: Ravens @ Browns (CLE +3)
The first single play of this week is the Baltimore Ravens at the Cleveland Browns (+3).
The major news for this matchup is that Lamar Jackson will remain out for the second straight game. Even if he were playing, the Browns still would have had a solid chance here, but with him out, their odds are even better. Tyler Huntley has proven to be a more than capable backup, but he isn’t Jackson.
The thought process here is that AFC North games are historically extremely hard-fought battles, and Cleveland is a different team at home. Barring a complete collapse last week against the Jets, they were right on the verge of a 4-1 record. This was an idea that would have gotten any person laughed out of the building before the season started, but it turns out they might have a little something brewing in The Land.
The Browns do have a few injury concerns, but they all do have a chance to suit up on Sunday. DT Mason Graham, LB Carson Schwesinger, and RB Quinshon Judkins are all meaningful players, and any of them missing the game would not be ideal. They all practiced in a limited fashion on Friday, so it appears they are trending in the right direction. In terms of good news, WR KC Concepcion also cleared concussion protocol and will be playing on Sunday.
The Ravens are off to an impressive 4-1 start, but are they as good as their record says they are? Their wins are against the Colts, Cowboys, Titans, and Falcons, and three of those four are one-score victories. They also lost at home to the struggling Saints. Baltimore has weapons on both sides of the ball, but they are not at all invulnerable, especially without their star QB going into Cleveland.
The Browns are a spunky team that isn’t content with being a punching bag for the rest of the league. Their comfort level at home is a major difference-maker, and Huntley will struggle to put up another performance like last week. Cleveland stays undefeated at home and defeats its bitter rival in a dogfight, 18-15.
Against The Spread: Steelers @ Buccaneers (PIT -2.5)
The last bet of the week is the Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This one does feel a tad risky because, in life and in football, weird things happen in Florida. That being said, the weather is not projected to be a factor, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will still be running the show on Sunday. He is coming off his first career NFL win last Thursday, but it was against the woefully incompetent, embarrassing excuse for a franchise, the Dallas Cowboys, so does it really count? Those words are regrettably coming from a Cowboys fan, so they’re allowed to be said.
While Daniels’ performance should not be completely overlooked, and it is not an easy feat to win in the NFL, that game was an apparition. The Cowboys’ defense is an abomination, and the Steelers should be much more of a challenge to contend with on Sunday. Pittsburgh has yet to win on the road thus far, but at New England and at Cleveland are no walks in the park. They will be hungry to build on an impressive win at home against the Colts this past Sunday.
Despite his age and off-the-field quirkiness, Aaron Rodgers has been playing some solid football through five weeks. He is not the MVP he once was, but he is still competing at a high enough level to win games. He has been aided greatly by RB Jaylen Warren. He leads the team in both rushing and receiving yards, and continues to be one of the most underrated players in the league. Warren should be a major contributor once again this Sunday in Tampa.
Mike McCarthy has been a punching bag for a handful of years now, but his treatment has simply been unfair. He knows how to coach, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Pittsburgh offense has put up at least 24 points in each of the last three games, and if they can do that again going up against a backup QB, that should be more than enough to win and, more importantly, cover.
If the Steelers want to be considered a legitimate threat to repeat as AFC North champions, this is a game that they have to win. The -2.5 line is already extremely disrespectful, and every player on the roster should take that to heart. The Steelers go into Tampa Bay and bring the Bucs back to reality. They win 27-16.
Here’s to a lock-filled Week 6 for all!
