In Week 5, the Against the Spread series dished out its second straight winning week of picks. Another 2-1 record kept the profitability and good vibes going. Three of the four games went almost exactly as expected, and barring a Bears’ implosion, there was a shot at the first undefeated slate of the season.
That being said, winning should never be taken for granted, and without further delay, here’s how Week 5 went down.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, 49ers @ Seahawks (SF +3 -> +10) WIN
The first leg of the teaser was the San Francisco 49ers (+10) at the Seattle Seahawks. With seven combined turnovers, this was anything but a pretty game to watch. Even so, it was still abundantly clear that there were two high-level teams on the field that day.
The thought process behind teasing the Niners to +10 was that, win or lose, this was going to be a tight game, and that it was. While there was a lot of back and forth, this was a relatively stress-free watch for teaser purposes. The largest San Francisco deficit was 26-21 in the third quarter after a 13-0 Seattle run, but even then, it still felt like the 49ers were in control.
The Seahawks offense struggled once again despite what the scoreboard showed. Their only two touchdowns came directly from turnovers, and they had no long, sustained drives. Sam Darnold had another rough outing, throwing two more interceptions and posting a 32.2 QBR. The running game remained ineffective. The team averaged 3.4 yards per carry, and both Emanuel Wilson and George Holani lost a fumble each.
Seattle looks like it will improve as the season continues, but the offense can’t continue to be this careless. They turned the ball over four times and lost to arguably the best team in the league by only three points. The defense is their strength, and they can’t be forced to play against the other team’s offense as well as their own.
The Niners look like they could very well be the best team in football. They weren’t close to perfect in any of the three phases of the game, yet they still won a road game in a hostile environment against an elite division rival. That’s even more impressive than playing a flawless game. As long as all the injuries don’t catch up to them, this is an extremely scary 49ers group for the rest of the league to deal with.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Bills @ Rams (BUF +3 -> +10) WIN
The second leg of the teaser was the Buffalo Bills (+10) at the Los Angeles Rams. Like the Niners and Seahawks game, this one lived up to its billing and was an absolute thriller to cap off the week.
In addition to being enormously entertaining, this was a completely sweat-free way to clinch the teaser. The Bills’ largest deficit in the entire game was a single point, and it never seemed like either team would be able to pull away. The value in teasing the underdog in matchups between two top teams was on full display and paid off big time yet again.
With a 37-34 final, this was obviously a shootout, but both teams would certainly admit they left a lot of meat on the bone. It was a penalty-fest, as Buffalo had 13, while Los Angeles nearly matched them with 11 of their own. Josh Allen also threw another interception, and James Cook fumbled two more times, losing one of them, which probably should have lost them the game. The Rams technically won the turnover battle two to zero, but they did have two missed field goals that ended up costing them the game and kicker Harrison Mevis’ job.
Allen and Cook are the Bills’ best offensive weapons; however, they are making a habit of turning the ball over. They are both putting up great stats, and their team is 4-1, but turnovers lose games, and they won’t always get away with them. The defense is obviously not reliable at the moment, and that doesn’t look like it will be changing anytime soon. If Buffalo wants to keep winning, the offense can’t be putting them in difficult situations.
Surprisingly, the kicking game has been a problem for nearly all of Sean McVay’s tenure in LA. It’s surprising because such a meticulously well-prepared, detail-oriented coach would almost certainly be able to find a dependable kicker by now. The Rams sit at 2-3, and while they have underachieved, it isn’t time to panic. Matthew Stafford and the offense looked nearly unstoppable on Monday night, and their defense will improve as the year progresses. They have too much talent not to. If they can find themselves a real kicker, everything else will fall into place. Don’t write them off just yet.
Against The Spread: Bears @ Packers (CHI -2.5) LOSS
The first single bet of the week was the Chicago Bears (-2.5) at the Green Bay Packers. This was a result that was completely unexpected based on how both teams were trending. All of a sudden, the Bears were completely incompetent on both sides of the ball, and the Packers looked like an undefeated juggernaut. This is the type of game that plays out the second a cent of currency is involved.
To be fair, there was some history to support backing Green Bay in this spot. Matt LaFleur was 12-3, including the postseason against Chicago, going into Sunday’s showdown. It is a large sample size, and it wasn’t a stat to be ignored, but not every bet can be made strictly off past outcomes.
Going on the road to Lambeau is not an easy task at all, but the way the Bears played was shocking. The Packers weren’t exactly setting the world on fire through four games, and didn’t have much momentum at all to speak of. Whatever pregame speech Coach LaFleur gave his guys, he might want to keep it in the rotation.
Jordan Love was sensational, and he carved up the Chicago defense all day. He was 25 of 31 passing for 367 yards and two touchdowns, with a sparkling 94.1 QBR. This was the best Love and the offense have looked this season, and it may be a sign of things to come. Their next three opponents are the Cowboys, Lions, and Panthers (oh my). All three defenses have been extremely porous thus far and could offer even more opportunities for the Green Bay offense to thrive. The running game is still a concern without Josh Jacobs, as they only averaged 2.7 yards per carry on 26 attempts on Sunday, but if Love keeps spinning it like that, they might not need one.
The Bears’ total no-show effort here was gross to watch as a bettor, but there is still no major cause for concern for them long term. Both Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum were dreadful, and they combined for four of the team’s five turnovers. The defense wasn’t good either, but this kind of just felt like one of those days where nothing was going to go right for anyone in a Bears jersey. The Week 16 rematch on Christmas Day in Chicago will look much different as long as guys like Caleb Williams and Kyle Monangai are back and healthy.
Against The Spread: Vikings @ Saints (MIN -2.5) WIN
The second solo play, and last of the week, was the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at the New Orleans Saints. This was the classic early-window game that doesn’t get shown much on RedZone because it’s kind of hard to watch and the result is never really in doubt.
In all fairness to the Saints, the game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but they never appeared to be a threat to upset. The only reason the game was tied at all was a fluke 87-yard fumble-return touchdown by the New Orleans defense. Their only other touchdown drive earlier in the game was also set up by another Minnesota fumble.
The Vikings’ defense dominated the entire game, only giving up seven points and leaving the Saints’ offense in shambles from start to finish. Tyler Shough could only muster 96 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. The rushing attack didn’t have much success either, putting up just 55 yards on 3.2 yards per carry. This defense is potentially the best in football. They can put the clamps on any team and turn them over with the best of them. They’re the main reason this team is 5-0, and will have to continue to perform at this level if they have designs on making a serious playoff run.
The Minnesota offense actually looked somewhat decent for once in this game. That could partially be due to going up against a below-average New Orleans defense, but progress is progress. They put up 364 yards of total offense and possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes of game time. With a defense like theirs, this is the recipe for success. They need to possess the ball and keep the defenders fresh to wreak havoc throughout the game. Turnovers were the sole reason the Saints were able to stay in this game at all, and against a better team would have gotten them beat.
That’s two winning weeks in a row. The overall season record is back to .500, and it’s time to keep stacking W’s from here on out. The preparation for Week 6 starts now.
