With Week 5 on the horizon, the Against the Spread saga rages on with some renewed confidence. After narrowly missing out on a clean sweep in last week’s segment, perfection doesn’t just loom; it beckons.
Winning more than losing is the name of the game, but nobody ever wants to lose. Last week was a great momentum builder, and now it’s all about keeping it going.
Once again, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are always subject to change. Here is the Week 5 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, 49ers @ Seahawks (SF +3 -> +10)
The first bet is a seven-point, two-team teaser, starting with the San Francisco 49ers (+3) at the Seattle Seahawks. The teaser takes the spread from 49ers +3 to +10.
This rematch of last year’s divisional round should shape up to be one of the best games of the week. In addition to being enormously entertaining, it could end up going a long way towards deciding the NFC West winner.
The Niners will come into Seattle extremely motivated, with revenge fully on their mind. They were humiliated and eliminated there this past January, and even though they were vastly undermanned, that doesn’t lessen the sting one bit. This is a game that both teams are going to do everything in their power to win, and it is projected to come down to the very end.
The read here is that even with all their injuries, San Francisco is playing better football right now. If the 49ers were the home team, they would likely be the favorite. This line seems more like respect for the mystique of Seattle’s home-field advantage rather than where the teams’ level of play is currently.
The Seahawks are 3-1, but they haven’t been overly impressive by any stretch of the imagination. Sam Darnold has been flat-out bad in the two full games he has played this year. He’s thrown three interceptions, lost to the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders, and nearly choked a 27-6 lead at home to the winless Chargers.
Darnold is clearly not seeing the field well, and the run game has been completely incapable of taking any pressure off of him. Seattle’s defense has also not looked as daunting as it was expected to be. It’s a long season, and they will certainly evolve as time goes on, but the Niners are the play here.
The +10 will be a great cushion to have for comfort’s sake, but it won’t even be necessary. Brock Purdy and the 49ers go into their rival’s house and exorcise their demons. They stay undefeated and win outright, 24-21.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Bills @ Rams (BUF +3 -> +10)
The second leg of the teaser is the Buffalo Bills (+3) at the Los Angeles Rams. With the seven-point teaser in play, the spread becomes Bills +10.
This should be an excellent game on Monday Night Football between two teams that have their eyes set on being back in this stadium on February 14th. While both squads are immensely talented, neither one has played up to their full potential thus far. Both will be looking to put it all together and make a statement in prime time, which should result in a highly contested battle.
The read in this one, much like the first game, is that these are two highly skilled and essentially evenly matched contenders. Anytime there is an opportunity to seize a ten-point cushion with a team that could easily win outright, it needs to be taken advantage of.
The Bills are not the type to be blown out, especially not in a big prime-time game. They are coming off a disappointing loss at home to a divisional rival, the Patriots, which should have them laser-focused on bouncing back in a big way. Buffalo is 3-1 and looks like they should be playoff-bound yet again, but they are not without concerns.
Josh Allen is an otherworldly talent, but sometimes that gets him into trouble, and he tries to do too much. He’s thrown three interceptions in the last two games, including a particularly forced one that sealed the loss against New England last week. Allen is the heartbeat of the organization, but he has to stay under control, and Joe Brady needs to assist him in doing so.
Use James Cook the way he is supposed to, and take some pressure off Allen to do it all himself. Cook inexplicably only had 12 carries in the previous game despite averaging a whopping 6.3 yards per carry. Brady needs to remember to balance out the run and pass game on Monday night because that is when their offense is at its best.
The Bills’ defense is an issue for sure, but not an insurmountable one. The Rams aren’t exactly setting the world on fire right now. They’re 2-2, and they beat Jameis Winston and the Giants, and they needed a furious comeback against a broken and battered Eagles team. They have the firepower to be great, but Myles Garrett is still out, and Matthew Stafford has thrown six interceptions in four games. Keep an eye on the injury report leading up to game time regarding DJ Moore’s status, but with or without him, Buffalo will be in the fight.
This is going to be a fantastic conclusion to Week 5 from an entertainment standpoint, but Bills Mafia will not be happy with the result. The Bills cover easily, but the Rams defend LA and are victorious 31-29.
Against The Spread: Bears @ Packers (CHI -2.5)
The first single bet is the Chicago Bears (-2.5) at the Green Bay Packers.
This line is a bit of a puzzling one. Yes, it is a divisional game, yes, Caleb Williams is still out, and yes, it is in Green Bay, but haven’t the Packers been dreadful this year? They choked miserably to the Vikings, barely beat a bad Jets team in OT, were eviscerated by the Falcons at home, and barely beat a winless Bucs team with an undrafted rookie at quarterback. Why are they only 2.5-point underdogs?
The Bears have looked good on offense, whether it’s Case Keenum or Tyson Bagent at QB. Bagent will be under center on Sunday, but as long as Ben Johnson is steering the ship, it almost feels like it doesn’t matter. Obviously, Williams is the unquestioned starter and possesses abilities that few others do, but this offense can function well without him.
The main question marks are running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai’s status. They are both currently deemed questionable, but Swift returned to practice Thursday, while Monangai has yet to do so. Coach Johnson originally downplayed Monangai’s injury after a massive Week 4 performance, but now it appears he may be in jeopardy of missing this game. His absence would be less than ideal, but as long as Swift is active, the run game should still be effective.
An underrated aspect of Chicago this season has been that, other than their first game, the defense has been way better than advertised. They have given up a combined 28 points in the last three games. That’s an average of 9.3 points allowed per game. Sure, the argument is there that those were all against weak offenses, but would the Packers not also qualify as a weak offense?
Green Bay has zero ability to run the ball in any way, shape, or form, and Jordan Love is not good enough to carry an offense single-handedly. Their defense was already shorthanded with Micah Parsons still not back, and they lost their sack leader, Edgerrin Cooper, to a torn achilles last week. Even at home, this is not a good spot for them.
Johnson and the Bears go into Lambeau and make Matt LaFleur’s seat a little bit hotter. They dismantle their arch-rivals 27-13.
Against The Spread: Vikings @ Saints (MIN -2.5)
The final bet on the Week 5 slate is the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at the New Orleans Saints.
This is another example of a line that feels a little low. The Saints were a popular sleeper pick to win the NFC South at the beginning of the season, but after four games, that isn’t looking too likely. They’re 1-3, and despite an impressive win in Baltimore and close losses to the Lions and Raiders, they feel like more of a fun team than a good one. Their recent embarrassment at home on MNF to the divisional rival Falcons seemed to solidify that position further as well.
The Vikings are on the opposite end of that spectrum. Their games aren’t particularly fun to watch, but all they do is win. They’re 4-0 in spite of an offense that at times has seemed better off just taking a knee three times and then punting.
While Kyler Murray has struggled to get into a rhythm, he should get a big lift in this game with Justin Jefferson expected to return. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is trending towards not playing after suffering a concussion last week, and that is a cause for concern, especially with left guard Donovan Jackson already on IR. Even with the offensive line injuries and the overall lack of production from the offense, what makes this team great is their defense.
DC Brian Flores has had this unit on an absolute tear to start the season. They haven’t allowed more than 16 points in the last three games and have had opposing quarterbacks in shambles from start to finish. The Vikings defense has already amassed 16 sacks, four interceptions, and three fumble recoveries. Flores’ scheme thrives on generating pressure and making QBs uncomfortable. Tyler Shough was under pressure all game last week, and everyone saw what that resulted in.
The Saints are a young team that appears to be on the right trajectory, but they just might need another year of growth. They’re coming off a short week against an undefeated team that feels like it can win no matter what the offense does. While New Orleans can definitely improve as this season continues, this is not a good spot to start turning things around.
Kevin O’Connell’s squad stays undefeated in The Big Easy. Vikings suffocate the Saints by a score of 23-16.
Here’s to filling up the win column in Week 5!
