In Week 4 of the NFL season, the Against the Spread series is looking to build some momentum. Last week’s plays were a nice bounce back, going 2-2 and improving upon a winless Week 2.
Going .500 was a nice moral victory, but moral victories don’t lead to greatness. This is the week the generational run gets going, with some great games on the board.
As usual, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are always subject to change. Here is Week 4 of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Jaguars @ Bengals (JAX +2.5 -> +9.5)
The first bet is a seven-point, two-team teaser, starting with the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at the Cincinnati Bengals. The teaser takes the spread from Jaguars +2.5 to +9.5.
This should be a highly entertaining and competitive matchup between two former first-overall picks. Both teams are 2-1, and while it is still early, they look like they could be legitimate contenders in the AFC.
The read here is that these squads are pretty evenly matched, and if the Jaguars were the ones favored, nobody would have been surprised. The Bengals’ defense has been better than expected thus far, but the Jags are the more complete team. Cincinnati may also be without starting safety Bryan Cook and starting right guard Dalton Risner, who are both questionable.
Even if both those guys end up suiting up on Sunday, bettors should still feel fantastic about the prospect of just needing the Jaguars to keep it a one-score game. They could easily be 3-0 right now if it weren’t for a disastrous second half in Denver, and that was still only a seven-point defeat.
Jacksonville is extremely well-coached and balanced, and it wouldn’t be ridiculous at all to call them a sleeper Super Bowl team. The +9.5 will never be in doubt, as the Jags go into the jungle and “upset” Joe Burrow and the Bengals 31-26.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Cowboys @ Texans (DAL +3 -> +10)
The second leg of the teaser is the Dallas Cowboys (+3) at the Houston Texans. With the seven-point teaser in place, the spread becomes Cowboys +10.
This is a situation where both teams are going to be desperate for a win because of how badly their respective seasons have started. Dallas being 1-2 and Houston being 0-3 essentially makes this a borderline must-win game for the two of them.
The Texans’ defense was expected to be dominant once again, but through three games, that has not been the case. They are definitely not the sole reason behind the winless start, as the offense has been dreadful for two of the first three games, but they are not operating at their peak currently. Going up against an elite Cowboys offense isn’t exactly a get-right game either.
Houston is getting Nico Collins back, which will be a major boost for the offense. They are also going against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Cowboys are dealing with a litany of injuries on that side of the ball, but they weren’t good anyway with the starters, so maybe these replacements will be an upgrade. They certainly can’t be much worse. Plus, the addition of newly acquired Joey Porter Jr. will be a massive improvement for the secondary. It just remains to be seen how many snaps he actually plays.
This will be a battle of strength against strength and weakness against weakness. The Cowboys offense has been humming so far this season, and even against a unit like the Texans, that should be expected to continue. They just lost a game in a completely humiliating fashion, and the players and coaching staff should be more focused than ever.
Both teams are going to be playing as if their playoff chances depend on it, because the statistics say they likely are. This will be a close one, and the +10 spread will be a nice cushion, but the Dallas defense makes just enough plays to give the offense a chance. Cowboys send the Texans to 0-4 and win outright by a score of 27-24.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ 49ers (SF -3)
The first solo bet of this week is the Denver Broncos @ the San Francisco 49ers (-3).
Somehow, it seems like no matter how endless the list of injured players is, the 49ers just keep showing up and winning football games. The Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy offense has been on another level through three games, putting up 27, 35, and 36 points while not allowing a single sack. The offensive line has been impressive, but Purdy has also been getting rid of the ball so quickly that defenders haven’t had the chance to get to him. This will be key against a Broncos defense whose identity revolves around pressuring the QB.
Mike Evans appears to be a true game-time decision, and if he is unable to play, that would be an added hurdle, but not an insurmountable one. Purdy has already had so many receivers drop like flies and has adjusted each time. Plus, veteran WR Brandin Cooks will be suiting up, and while he wouldn’t be an Evans replacement, he will be a valuable weapon to have.
On the defensive side, Nick Bosa is out once again, and Dre Greenlaw, Keion White, and Jaden Dugger are all questionable. Bosa is obviously impossible to replace, and the defense surrendered 30 points to the Cardinals in his absence last week, but they should be more accustomed to playing without him now. The Cards also have a much better offense than most would give them credit for, so it’s not as if it was an easy matchup.
The Broncos on paper look like they should be one of the top teams in football, but they have been incredibly inconsistent so far. They were destroyed in Kansas City in Week 1 before bouncing back with two straight comeback wins at home. Going back to last year, Denver has been much better at home than on the road, and has required late-game heroics many times. The Broncos are 2-1 and should not be taken lightly, but they seem like they are still working through some issues. Going on the road to play a Niners team that’s feeling themselves right now does not seem like an ideal situation for them.
Purdy and the SF offense stay hot and send their fans home happy. They win 30-23 and improve to 4-0.
Against The Spread: Lions @ Panthers (DET -3.5, Buy 0.5 Point -> -3)
The last bet on this week’s slate will be the Detroit Lions (-3.5) at the Carolina Panthers. -3.5 is a treacherous line and feels like, most of the time, that extra 0.5 point comes back to cost bettors. It is for that reason that the move here is to buy the line down to Lions -3.
The Detroit offense has been on fire to kick off the season, and they have put up exactly 31 points in all three games. The trio of Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown has been deadly, and defenses have had no answer for any of them.
Carolina will be without their top two corners for the foreseeable future, as Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson were both put on IR earlier this week. The Lions’ offense is already hard enough to stop with a fully healthy defense. Being down two starting corners against weapons like St. Brown and Jameson Williams could be a death sentence.
The drawback with Detroit is that their defense has been horrendous. They are almost fully reliant on the offense to carry them to victory. While this isn’t a style of play that is sustainable for an entire season, the Lions have shown that they have the ability to win a shootout most of the time if that’s what it takes.
The Panthers’ offense has demonstrated the ability to put up points, and they more than likely will do exactly that on Sunday night. They just don’t appear to have the firepower to match what the Lions are working with. This could be reminiscent of their Week 1 showdown with the Bears, which ended in a 59-37 loss.
Carolina has the look of a fun team to watch, but not necessarily an actually good team. Detroit motors into the Queen City and puts on a show in prime time, and they win 42-26.
This is where the winning streak starts. Good luck to all in Week 4!
