NFL Week 1 is off to a strong start, and the vibes are high! The Patriots and Seahawks kicked off the season Wednesday in Seattle, where fans and gamblers alike had to sweat it out to the end. Hawks fans and those who followed the first issue of Against the Spread rejoiced, as both got to go home with smiles on their faces—some with a little more money in their pocket than others.
The 49ers and Rams had a star-studded game in Australia the following night, but there was no play on this one. There was no strong read one way or the other. The Niners seemed like an intriguing play at +3.5 against a team that Shanahan has owned for the majority of his career, but I didn’t pull the trigger. When in doubt, don’t place a bet.
The rest of the weekend slate, however, has some interesting options that stand out. The first teaser of the year worked out so well; why not run it back with another? This will be another two-team, seven-point teaser, so anyone unfamiliar should refer back to the earlier article where I explain more in depth.
Once again, these odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are always subject to change. Without further ado, here is the second edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: Buccaneers @ Bengals (TB +3.5 -> +10.5)
The first leg of this teaser will be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 at the Cincinnati Bengals. Per the rules of a seven-point teaser, the spread will then change to the Bucs +10.5.
Tampa is attractive this week because there is a good chance that they will win outright, and this gives them an extra 10.5-point cushion to work with. These teams are closely matched, as demonstrated by the original 3.5-point line. With that in mind, there are also some eye-popping trends that greatly favor the Buccaneers in this contest.
Since Zac Taylor became head coach of the Bengals in 2019, his record in Weeks 1 and 2 is a staggering 3-11. His teams are well-documented slow starters, and the Bucs should be able to exploit this once again on Sunday.
In Week 1 in particular, quarterback Joe Burrow has a 2-4 record with just five touchdowns and five interceptions. Historically, he does not play well to start the season, and those two wins were by a combined four points.
The Bengals have been plagued by a flat-out bad offensive line and defense for years now, and despite efforts to improve both, there is no reason to be intimidated by either unit.
There is a lot to like about the Buccaneers heading into this game. Perhaps most importantly, organizational cornerstones Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea both received extensions. They were disgruntled during the offseason, but all appears well now, and there will be no drama carried into the season.
Mayfield has thrown nine touchdowns and zero interceptions to go along with a 3-0 record in Week 1 with Tampa. He reunites with new OC Zac Robinson, who was the QB’s coach with the Rams in 2022 and was part of the start of Mayfield’s career renaissance there. Their familiarity should be a key difference-maker, especially early on.
Franchise legend Mike Evans departed in the offseason, but it’s fair to say the team improved in spite of that loss. Kenny Gainwell was added in free agency, and he forms a formidable RB duo with third-year back Bucky Irving. Gainwell will likely be the Robin to Irving’s Batman, but he is still one hell of a player. He had the best season of his career in 2025 with over 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight total TDs for the Steelers, who weren’t exactly setting the world on fire offensively. He’s an under-the-radar signing that will be much more valuable than most people realize.
On defense, Tampa Bay lost another franchise icon when Lavonte David retired. Again, despite this being another significant loss, the defense looks poised to be even better. The most exciting newcomer has to be first-round pick Ruben Bain. The edge rusher fell to the Buccaneers at the 15th pick, and he is expected to be a candidate for DROY. Pass rush was a huge issue for the team last season, but he should provide a massive boost.
The thing to remember about the Bucs is that they looked like one of the best teams in football for the first eight weeks last year. They were 6-2 before injuries, and a seemingly cosmic funk struck the team. They went on to lose seven of their last nine and miss the playoffs entirely. HC Todd Bowles and company know they left a lot of meat on the bone last year, and they will be focused on righting the ship (intentional pirate pun) from the jump in 2026.
Tampa Bay wins outright in a close one, 27-24, and the first leg of the teaser hits comfortably.
Against The Spread : Bills @ Texans (HOU +1.5 -> +8.5)
The second leg of the teaser will be the Houston Texans +1.5 when they host the Buffalo Bills. With the seven-point teaser, this takes the Texans to +8.5.
The Texans were a personal favorite to include in teasers the previous season. Their tenacious defense ensured they were in every single game, which made them incredibly trustworthy for betting purposes. During the regular season, their largest margin of defeat was eight points, and it came in a visit to Seattle against the eventual Super Bowl champs. Their only two-score loss occurred in the AFC Divisional Round when CJ Stroud seemingly forgot which team he played for and threw four interceptions. Even then, they somehow only lost 28-16.
Fast-forwarding back to the present day and putting thoughts of inexplicable interceptions out of mind, Houston, like Tampa Bay, has immense value at +8.5 and no doubt has a more than fair shot to win the game outright. The two teams met in the same venue last year, and backup Davis Mills led the Texans to victory. This certainly gives Houston a boost of confidence that this is a winnable game, and Buffalo a little extra motivation to get revenge this time around.
With Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills are always going to be in the Super Bowl conversation. He is one of the best players in the league, and nobody is going to take him or his team lightly, especially in the first game. In Allen’s last five Week 1 appearances, four of them have ended in one-score games, including the last three in a row.
Buffalo is clearly a threat in the AFC, but how effective will they be early on after the coaching shakeup? Sure, Joe Brady was already in the building, but he is still a first-time head coach, and making his debut on the road against probably the best defense in football is not exactly a soft landing.
For Stroud and the Texans, this is the beginning of a monumentally important year. His performance in the playoffs last season made people question whether he is the franchise QB he was billed to be. While harsh, it is a fair question because that was a Super Bowl-caliber roster. If he had just played below-average football, instead of a complete disaster, Houston likely would have represented the AFC in Santa Clara this past February. That’s how dominant this defense was and still is.
Stroud can’t be selfish and think he has to prove himself as a QB worthy of a big extension. If he puts the team first and prioritizes winning, the contract will work itself out. He doesn’t have to do any heavy lifting with the way this team is constructed. He should take a page out of Drew Lock’s book from Tuesday night. Run the ball, be smart, don’t commit any silly turnovers, and put the defense in position to be successful.
Speaking of running the ball, the David Montgomery acquisition should be quite helpful in that department. The ground game was a struggle last season, with rookie Woody Marks and veteran Nick Chubb handling most of the load. Marks was the team’s leading rusher with 703 yards, and Chubb led the team with three rushing TDs.
While the Texans have made it clear that Marks will still be involved in the backfield, Montgomery is a proven commodity. He’s been second fiddle to Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit for the last two years, but so would basically every other running back. The 29-year-old may be getting a little long in the tooth in RB years, but with his carries being limited by Gibbs, he should have plenty more in the tank for 2026 and beyond. The Bills were one of the worst teams at stopping the run a season ago, and Montgomery and Marks should be able to take advantage of that come Sunday.
This is one of those cases where it wouldn’t be surprising if either team wins, but it would be shocking if it were decided by more than one score. The Bills’ strength is offense, and the Texans’ strength is defense. The winner will likely be determined by which team’s weaker unit can make more plays.
Texans win at home 21-20, Bills save their first win for their new stadium next week, and the teaser cashes once again.
2-0 or bust!
