NFL Opening Night may have lacked points, but it made up for that with drama and competitiveness. Nobody could have predicted that Sam Darnold would be knocked out of the game after his first drive, but that’s part of sports and betting.
To recap the opening night Against The Spread, the play for Patriots/Seahawks was a two-team, seven-point teaser: Seahawks +4 and the total under 51.5.
Truthfully, watching Darnold hobble off the field, there was definitely a sense of concern about the bet’s chances of hitting. Drew Lock is a serviceable backup QB, but there’s no way he was expecting to see any action in game one.
Clearly, someone pulling the strings took the title “Opening Night Lock” a little too literally. Luckily, the adversity only made the win that much sweeter.
Against The Spread Opening Night Lock: What Went Right?
Darnold only playing five snaps before being injured and not returning was not ideal at all. That being said, it didn’t seem like the game plan changed much with Lock at the helm. Run the ball, be smart, don’t commit any silly turnovers, and put the defense in position to be successful. To the backup’s credit, he did exactly all of those things.
As predicted, this game was never going to be a shootout. Both teams had their fair share of offensive struggles, but third downs in particular were a major problem. The Pats were 5-16 on conversions, while the Hawks were 2-11. The inability of either team to sustain drives may have been frustrating from a fan perspective, but it was nice in terms of ensuring the under was never in doubt.
It was interesting to examine the team stats after the game and find how similar they were. No QB surpassed 200 yards passing, no RB had more than 60 yards rushing, and both clubs only scored one touchdown. As most games do, this one came down entirely to turnovers.
Drake Maye’s three interceptions, including the one in the end zone to ice the game, were a complete backbreaker. Seattle played cleaner with zero giveaways of their own, and it’s nearly impossible to win a game with a turnover ratio like that. Especially given the fact that Mike Macdonald is undefeated during his tenure with the Seahawks when winning the turnover battle.
It was clearer how debilitating the interceptions were when looking at the stats that New England decisively had the advantage in. They had just under nine more minutes of time of possession, ran 19 more plays, and had three fewer penalties for 48 fewer yards. Maye obviously is still an extremely talented young quarterback, but he cost them in this one.
For Patriots fans looking for some positives to take away from this experience, there actually are quite a few. TreVeyon Henderson did not play, AJ Brown only had three catches and hurt his ankle, Romeo Doubs had no catches, Maye had the three picks… and they lost by three points on the road against the champs.
Henderson will be back soon; hopefully Brown’s injury isn’t serious. In theory, Doubs remembers how to catch a football, and Maye won’t make a habit of turning the ball over like that. A loss never feels good, but it is evident that this is still a good team, and there should be no panic after one game.
For Seahawks fans, this was the perfect win. So much went wrong, and obviously there was a lot to clean up, but they’re allowed to learn the lessons without losing. There were definitely growing pains with new OC Brian Fleury, but he gets somewhat of a pass based on the unforeseen circumstances he had to navigate in his first regular-season game calling plays.
It did seem like there was some confusion getting the plays in to Lock, though at times. This led to some pre-snap penalties, including a delay of game and an illegal shift that resulted in a go-ahead field goal instead of a touchdown in the fourth quarter. That is the kind of mistake that can decide a game, and it nearly did here. He’ll need to be better as the year goes on if Seattle wants a chance to repeat.
At the end of the day, a sports bettor’s favorite team is the one that covers, and this week, the Seahawks are that team. It was great to have the NFL back and start with a successful lock. This was the first of many, and more will be dropping for the weekend slate. Stay tuned.
