The Against the Spread chronicles were frustratingly unsuccessful in Week 8. Between ridiculous injuries and underperformances, it seemed like there were otherworldly forces at work.
At the end of the day, there are two options: sit around and complain, or get back in the game. Getting back in the game is always more fun and more rewarding.
As always, the following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are subject to change. Here is the Week 9 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Buccaneers @ Bears (CHI -6 -> +1)
The first play of the week is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Chicago Bears (-6). The seven-point teaser takes the spread from Bears -6 to +1.
This is shaping up to be a sneaky great game. This is Sunday Night Football, so it will have plenty of eyes on it, but at first glance, it isn’t exactly a matchup that catches the casual fan’s eye. The Buccaneers got off to a rough start, but they have won three of their last four and are surging in a dismal NFC South. The Bears have won three in a row since Caleb Williams’ return, including back-to-back against the Patriots and Seahawks, and are possibly the best team in football.
Tampa Bay’s current run shouldn’t be completely dismissed, but their opponents should be taken into account. Their three wins are against the likes of the Cowboys, Panthers, and Falcons. No disrespect to any of those teams except the Cowboys, but none of them are exactly the ’85 Bears reincarnated. The Bucs’ defense has been impressive lately, and clearly Todd Bowles hasn’t lost the locker room, but this is a step up in weight class.
Prior to last week, the Bears were already widely considered one of the best teams in the league. After the addition of Jeffery Simmons and a dominant three-score victory in Seattle on Monday Night Football, they look like they may be at the top of the class. Chicago may be the media darling currently, but they still aren’t even first place in their division. In a cutthroat NFC North, this isn’t a game they can afford to let drop.
The Bears roar at home in primetime and defeat the Buccaneers handily, 30-16.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Bills @ Vikings (MIN +3 -> +10)
The second game on the teaser is the Buffalo Bills at the Minnesota Vikings (+10). With the teaser being enacted, the spread goes from Vikings +3 to +10.
Yes, it is true that the Bills were a part of ruining the teaser, and the Vikings did not hit last week as a single bet. This is what is known as a rebuttal. The adjustments from Minnesota’s perspective are picking them at home and giving them a bigger cushion to work with. Another big change is that Kyler Murray will be sidelined, which may actually improve his team’s chances.
Carson Wentz shouldn’t be viewed as a savior, but he has looked more effective than Murray this season. It’s not like he needs to come in and light up the scoreboard. He just needs to give the offense a little boost and put up a few more points. The defense is top-notch, but they aren’t indestructible. If they’re on the field all game, like they were in Detroit, they are going to falter eventually. At the very least, Wentz can sustain drives and allow the defense to recharge on the sideline.
Buffalo may be 6-1, but nobody should be overly impressed with them. They have been giving up major points and playing in tight games all year long. Josh Allen is probably the best quarterback in the NFL, and any team he plays for should never be taken for granted, but they also shouldn’t be anointed at this point. Last week against the Ravens was a total and complete fluke. With any semblance of competent quarterback play, Baltimore would have been right in that game, and Wentz will prove that theory on Monday night.
The Bills are due for a loss, and they will be going into a hostile environment against a seriously unhappy team. This doesn’t turn out well for them. The Vikes bounce back at home and cover easily. They hand Buffalo their second loss of the year in a slugfest, 20-18.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ Panthers (DEN -2.5)
The first solo bet of the week is the Denver Broncos (-2.5) at the Carolina Panthers.
This is one of those times where the line seems too good to be true. The Broncos have won four straight and are starting to look like the team that went to the AFC Championship Game last year. They’re 6-2, first place in their division, and riding high after an electric comeback win against the Chiefs last week. So why is the line only -2.5?
The Panthers are allegedly a better team at home, but they don’t play like it. They did have an impressive win at home against the Lions earlier in the season, but that was over a month ago now. They have regressed since then and are still without their top two corners. Carolina does have some extra rest after playing on Thursday night last week, but that is no reason to affect the spread this significantly.
Yes, the Broncos are only 2-2 on the road, but the opponents and situations have to be remembered. The first loss was Week 1 in Kansas City with a first-time offensive coordinator making his debut. The defense also had an outrageous number of missed tackles. That was an extreme fluke. The other loss was in San Francisco (Santa Clara), against the 49ers. That’s a top-three team in football, and not a bad loss at all. Denver still needs to keep pace with the Chiefs in their division. They can’t afford to throw away games like this.
The Broncos trample the Panthers in Charlotte. They win 27-17.
Against The Spread: Packers @ Patriots (GB +3)
The last bet on the slate is the Green Bay Packers (+3) at the New England Patriots.
This should be one of the best matchups of the week. Both teams are trending upwards after slow starts to the season, and each has won four of their last five. The Packers lost a hard-fought game in Detroit that they easily could have won, and the Patriots lost a close one in Chicago on Thursday Night Football. Neither of these losses is anything to be ashamed of, and these are two legitimately quality teams.
This is also a case where there are some misleading stats. The Packers are 2-2 on the road, but once again the opponents and context need to be examined. The first loss was Week 1 in Minnesota, which is a difficult place to play at any time, but the first game of the season aspect made it even more difficult. They were even up big at one point before having a major collapse, but they have grown a lot on both sides of the ball since then. The other road loss was the previously mentioned Lions game, which once again is not a bad loss at all, and they would have won if they weren’t dead set on shooting themselves in the foot every opportunity.
The Patriots are 3-0 at home, which sounds impressive, but really isn’t upon further inspection. Their best home win would be when they beat the Steelers at home in Week 2, but Pittsburgh was not playing as well as they are now. That was a three-score victory for New England, but that game would be much closer if the two teams met now. The other two home wins were a blowout against the Raiders and a seven-point victory over the Jets. Nobody should be moved by any of those performances.
This should be an extremely close battle, and it wouldn’t be surprising if either team came out with the win. That being said, it will be Green Bay on Sunday. They go into Foxborough and serve New England its first home defeat of the season. The Pack wins 24-22.
Last week was an aberration. The wins will be back in a resounding fashion in Week 9!
