Advanced Metrics Support Wilson’s Case

Key analytical data best measures how valuable a player is to her team. Some of the more popular ones are Win Shares (WS) and Box Plus-Minus (BPM). The metric that best analyzes Wilson’s worth to the team is Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), which measures how much better a player is over a replacement-level player. There is a huge separation when making comparisons, considering that Wilson could go down as the greatest ever.

When comparing Wilson to other MVP candidates, the Liberty’s Breanna Stewart is her closest competition. Stewie could close the gap if she could guide her team to the best overall record.

Their head-to-head matchups could also determine the outcome. Stewie has had the edge in wins with a 9-7 record against Wilson, but the voters have favored the seven-time WNBA all-star the majority of the time. Her two-way prowess and defensive intensity are what differentiate the two rivals.

Another player who could give Wilson a run for her money is the Fever’s Caitlin Clark. She has been their offensive engine since her arrival, and her on/off-court net rating is among the best in the WNBA. While her presence on the court is important to her team’s success, the Fever have proven that they can win without her. They have a 17-15 record in her absence, but don’t be mistaken because they are definitely a better team with Clark.

This example just goes to show the importance of Wilson’s presence versus Clark’s. If Clark had to sit out, Aaliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell could hold things down until she returns. If Wilson is absent, they would rely on Jackie Young and Gray, but they will miss her on the defensive end and on the boards.

The acknowledgment of other players for MVP is important also, even if it seems Wilson has a high probability to win again. Other players shouldn’t be written off just because Stewart and Wilson are the frontrunners. For the moment, it’s just A’ja, then everyone else until someone proves otherwise.