The Against the Spread chronicles bounced back with a winning slate in Week 9. It was great to put last week in the rearview mirror and get back in the left-hand column, but this could have easily been an undefeated run.
Three of the four games went according to plan, all things considered. The one that didn’t had some of the worst quarterback play ever seen by human eyes. The funny thing is, without knowing which game was lost, someone could immediately figure it out off of that description alone.
It’s frustrating to get all the way to Monday night without a loss just to get cut down in spectacular fashion, but it’s important not to dwell on the negatives. This was a successful week!
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Buccaneers @ Bears (CHI -6 -> +1) WIN
The first leg on the teaser was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Chicago Bears (+1). This game ended up being much closer than expected, but a win is a win.
When the Bears instantly went up 14-0 to start the game, it looked like this may be a blowout in primetime. They looked like the best team in football, and the Buccaneers looked like they simply lacked the firepower to compete. Then, a switch must have flipped because Chicago ended up having to hold on until the very end to secure the win.
Tampa was clearly at a talent disadvantage, but nobody told them that. After giving up those first two touchdowns, the Bucs defense did not give up another touchdown for the rest of the game. The remaining 13 points allowed came off of a pick-six and two field goals. While the loss is painful, that is an extremely impressive performance on the road against one of the league’s most explosive offenses.
The Bears won’t feel good about their performance in this one, but there is something to be said about finding a way to win when seemingly everything is going wrong. Caleb Williams threw a whopping four interceptions, and Luther Burden lost a fumble to combine for an uncharacteristic five-turnover game. It is extremely rare to commit that many turnovers and still pull off a win in the NFL.
It’s a lot easier to watch the film and learn from all those mistakes when they don’t come with a loss. The Bucs are a scrappy bunch and are much better than their record shows. This is a rare occasion where both teams should actually come out feeling good about the way they’re trending at this point.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Bills @ Vikings (MIN +3 -> +10) LOSS
The teaser’s second leg was the Buffalo Bills at the Minnesota Vikings (+10). This was the lone loss of the week and spoiled what could have been perfection.
Carson Wentz should have been required to personally apologize to every single Vikings player, coach, front office member, fan, and bettor. That was one of the most disgustingly putrid performances ever displayed on a football field. The fact that they only lost by 17 points is nothing short of a miracle.
Wentz was 8 for 25 passing for 81 yards with no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 2.3 QBR. These are stats that are seldom seen from an NFL quarterback, which may be a generous way of describing him. It’s not even as if the Bills are a great defense that was playing smothering coverage all game. They are a statistically bad defense, and there were open receivers all night. The former Eagles star just couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
Amazingly, Minnesota was somehow only down by seven more than halfway through the fourth quarter. It’s a major testament to their defense that they were able to single-handedly keep the team in the game, but eventually they were simply asked to be on the field way too much. Buffalo possessed the ball for 42 minutes and 32 seconds. That is an outrageous amount of time for a defense to be asked to play against a top offense.
The Vikings offense flat-out lost this game. They turned the ball over three times and didn’t convert a single third or fourth down. It’s impossible to win with that type of output. The lone silver lining could be that after this embarrassment on Monday Night Football, they reunited with Kirk Cousins. He is instantly a major improvement at the quarterback position, and if he can play anything like he did with the Raiders, he should give the Vikes a fighting chance to compete going forward.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ Panthers (DEN -2.5) WIN
The first single bet of the week was the Denver Broncos (-2.5) at the Carolina Panthers. The spread for this game had “trap” written all over it. Thankfully, it didn’t turn out to be one.
This was not a dominant performance by the Broncos, but then again, it rarely is with them. They may be 7-2 and on a five-game win streak, but they only have one win this year by more than one score. That was against the sputtering Arizona Cardinals. While it isn’t ideal to have to grind out nearly every game, all that matters is winning.
The Panthers are such a difficult team to bet on or against because it’s almost impossible to know which version is going to show up. When they’re at their best, they look like a team that can compete with anyone in the league. The problem is those performances are few and far between. Despite that fact, they actually showed well this past Sunday against a better team.
For the most part, the stat sheet shows this was an evenly played game. The two main factors that decided the game were penalties and turnovers. Carolina committed 13 penalties for 119 yards and lost the turnover battle two to one. It’s hard enough for any team to win when losing in both those categories, but even more so for underdogs.
It was great to get this win, but this could have been a completely different outcome. The Panthers at one point were up 14-13 and had the ball on the Broncos’ one-yard line. Instead of punching it in and making it a 21-13 game, a circus interception in the end zone completely flipped momentum. Denver and their bettors alike will graciously accept the win, but still recognize how differently things could have gone. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Against The Spread: Packers @ Patriots (GB +3) WIN
The final play of the week was the Green Bay Packers (+3) at the New England Patriots. This was a great game to have the Packers on a slip because they never left any doubt about who was going to win.
Green Bay felt like an attractive play this past Sunday, but this level of domination was unexpected. They jumped on the Patriots from the start and went up 17-0 in the blink of an eye. It seemed like New England was almost surprised by how aggressively their opponents came out of the gate. This was a rare occurrence for a Mike Vrabel-led team, as they are almost always well prepared and rarely blown out.
This was potentially the best game of Jordan Love’s career. He was 23 of 29 passing for 372 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also added a rushing touchdown and received a nearly perfect QBR of 98. Having a game like this at any time would be a monumental accomplishment, but to do it on the road against a gritty Patriots defense made it even more impressive.
Love couldn’t have done it on his own, as Christian Watson and Matthew Golden had a field day. They combined for 17 catches for 335 yards, with a touchdown reception each. Both receivers are obviously immensely talented, but the question will be if they can stay healthy. They’ve struggled with this in their careers, but if they can flip the script, defensive backs should be concerned.
From the Patriots’ perspective, this is just one of those games that has to be flushed down the toilet. This was an uncharacteristic performance from the defense, and the Packers’ offense was on another level that day. What they should be concerned about is Drake Maye. He threw three interceptions and is now up to 11 for the season. He only threw eight all of last year. Maye is still only 24 years old, and there is no reason to sound any alarms at this point, but he cannot afford to play this recklessly. The hangover for teams that lose the Super Bowl is a real thing, but that isn’t an excuse that he, or anyone in New England, wants to hear.
Being on the doorstep of a perfect week and falling just short is disappointing, but profitable weeks like this can’t be taken for granted. This momentum will carry over into a jam-packed Week 10!
