The Against the Spread series was back to being profitable in Week 9. Despite a disappointing Monday night performance that spoiled a perfect slate, it was still a successful showing.
The pursuit of perfection never stops, but that doesn’t mean that winning weeks should be overlooked. Clean sweeps are always the goal, but consistently stringing together more wins than losses each week is the key to being an effective bettor.
The following odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are subject to change. Here is the Week 10 segment of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, 49ers @ Cowboys (SF -4.5 -> +2.5)
The first bet of the week is a seven-point teaser, starting with the San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at the Dallas Cowboys. The teaser takes the spread from 49ers -4.5 to +2.5.
This game will have great ratings because of the two historic franchises involved, but it shouldn’t be particularly competitive. The Niners outclass the Cowboys as a franchise in every category related to putting together a winning football team, and that will be abundantly clear Sunday afternoon.
Dallas is coming off a win last week, and getting George Pickens and DeMarvion Overshown back from injury. While those additions certainly help, do they change anything against a vastly superior opponent like this? The answer is nope.
The fact that the spread is only SF -4.5 is mind-blowing. Taking them to +2.5 seems almost unfair. The Cowboys have a 4-5 record and don’t have a single impressive win on their resume. They have beaten the Commanders, Texans, Eagles, and Colts. The Texans are probably the strongest of those teams, but all four are below .500 and in some sort of disarray. There is no reason to have any faith in America’s Team in this matchup, or in most in general.
San Francisco continues to be on a short list of Super Bowl contenders. They had their bye in Week 8, and didn’t miss a beat in Week 9, where they dismantled the Raiders with ease. Mike Evans has already been ruled out once again, but Deebo Samuel will be back. It usually doesn’t matter what receivers are playing against the Dallas secondary, but he will definitely be a welcome sight for Brock Purdy.
The Cowboys are no strangers to humiliating themselves on the big stage, so this game should be a familiar feeling. It’s a 49ers beatdown in Big D. SF flexes their muscles and wins decisively 42-21.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Steelers @ Bengals (PIT +3.5 -> +10.5)
The second leg of the teaser is the Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at the Cincinnati Bengals. With the teaser in place, the spread of Steelers +3.5 becomes +10.5.
This should be a fantastic matchup on Sunday Night Football. Both teams are 6-2 and riding on four-game win streaks; however, questions remain about their legitimacy as contenders. During that time, the Steelers have defeated the Colts, Buccaneers, Saints, and Browns. While the Bengals have beaten the Dolphins, Ravens, Titans, and Falcons. Winning in the NFL is never easy, but these streaks haven’t exactly come against intimidating teams.
A major advantage in this game for Pittsburgh is the fact that they are coming off a bye week, and Cincinnati played in Spain last week. The travel aspect can sometimes be looked into too much, but it feels like something to take into account in a game like this with two predominantly veteran teams.
The Bengals have an extremely talented trio on offense with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins, but their lack of a running game is concerning. Through eight games, Chase Brown is the leading rusher with just 397 yards on the ground. Now obviously, the passing game has been almost automatic all season, but it is dangerous to be so one-dimensional. If the Steelers don’t have to respect the running attack, that gives T.J. Watt and crew the freedom to pin their ears back and hunt Burrow all night long.
Pittsburgh is the more rested and prepared team in this one. Cincy’s defense is improved from years past, but is still susceptible to giving up a lot of points. The lowly Titans just put up 36 points and took them overtime only two weeks ago. The name of the game will be possessing the ball and keeping the Bengals offense off the field. Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle will have to be key parts of the game plan, and should each have big time performances of their own.
This is going to be a classic AFC North all-out war. It wouldn’t be surprising if either team won, but it will certainly be close. This time Cincinnati avenges their Week 3 loss and splits the season series. The Steelers cover comfortably, but the Bengals win a barn burner by a score of 33-30.
Against The Spread: Patriots @ Lions (DET -2.5)
The first solo play of the week is the New England Patriots at the Detroit Lions (-2.5) in Germany.
Fans of American football in Munich, Germany should be in for a treat this Sunday when two teams with playoff aspirations collide. While this game should be competitive, the Lions are clearly the better team here, and the line seems a little low, to be quite honest.
Detroit is on a four-game winning streak and looking like a confident bunch that expects to win every game they play. Obviously, their calling card is their offense, but recently their defense has been impressive. In the last four games, they haven’t given up more than 21 points, and with an offense as potent as theirs, it almost always requires more than that to beat them.
Something else that makes the Lions an attractive bet here is that they have been battle-tested. Two of their last three games have been against the Packers and Vikings, and both times they emerged with hard-fought wins. Winning is a learned behavior, especially against high-level opponents like that, and the Patriots have not been able to do that this year. They’re 5-4, all of their losses are against teams over .500, and only two of their wins are against teams over .500. They’re a good team, but not a great team, and they tend to shrink against better competition.
New England also has some significant injuries to keep an eye on. TreVeyon Henderson will remain out, and Rhamondre Stevenson is in danger of missing this contest as well. Not having their two top running backs would be difficult in any circumstance, but especially against a team like Detroit. The best defense against their offense is through ball control and keeping them off the field. It’s a lot harder to do that with a makeshift backfield.
Games in Europe can be tricky to predict at times, but this one feels pretty straightforward. Trust the better team to take care of business. The Lions’ streak goes international, and they win 27-19.
Against The Spread: Vikings @ Packers (GB -2.5)
The final bet of Week 10 is the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers (-2.5).
This is another game on the Sunday slate that should be immensely entertaining. Kirk Cousins is back wearing purple, the Vikings are looking to rebound after back-to-back losses, and the Packers are trying to win their third straight and sixth in their last seven games.
Minnesota has looked horrendous on offense basically for the entire season, and yet, they are 6-2. These last two weeks made it abundantly clear to the front office that the answer at quarterback was not on the roster. Cousins is the perfect midseason acquisition for them because of his familiarity with Kevin O’Connell’s system. This should allow him to take over the offense with a limited learning curve. He elevates this team, but it won’t happen instantly.
Green Bay is looking like a buzzsaw right now, and will be extra motivated to avenge their Week 1 loss. Jordan Love is playing some of the best football of his career and carrying an offense with almost no running game. That won’t get any easier this week with Josh Jacobs out, but honestly, he hadn’t really jump-started the rushing attack anyway.
With both defenses playing at a high level, this one will likely come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. That’s exactly what happened when these two faced off the first time this year. The Packers held a 12-point lead in the second half, but ultimately lost the turnover battle and committed nine more penalties than the Vikings. This resulted in a 29-0 Minnesota run and a 17-point victory.
In a strange way, that first meeting should actually make Green Bay feel better about their chances on Sunday. They moved the ball with ease and put up over 400 yards of offense against a top defense, and they have only improved on both sides of the ball since then.
The Vikings won’t sweep the season series. The Pack gets payback and stays within striking distance in an insanely competitive NFC North. They win a close one, 21-16.
Last week was just the appetizer. This is when perfection takes center stage.
