Week 2 was a humbling one for the Against the Spread series. It just goes to show that Week 1 can be a dirty little liar and can never be fully trusted as an accurate assessment of each team. Unfortunately, all three plays were losers this time around, bringing the overall record for the season to 3-5.
While this is obviously not the desired result, the NFL season is a feel-out process for teams and bettors alike. Failure is going to happen, but the important thing is to learn from it.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Eagles @ Titans (PHI -7 -> PK) WIN
The first leg of the two-team teaser was the Philadelphia Eagles (PK) at the Tennessee Titans. It was apparent early on that this was going to be a painful one to watch. The Eagles didn’t look sharp from the jump, and Saquon Barkley was essentially rendered useless after suffering a stinger. This greatly affected the run game, as they were held to 89 yards on the ground and just 2.8 yards per carry as a team.
Despite the lack of success rushing, Philadelphia still dominated time of possession with almost 13 more minutes with the ball than Tennessee. Jalen Hurts actually found quite a bit of success passing, with 264 yards, two touchdowns, and a 79.7 QBR. He did, however, throw two interceptions, which resulted in 10 more points for the opposition and made this a much closer game than it should have been.
Give credit to the heavy underdog Titans; they played a clean game and showed a lot of heart. They have a lot to be proud of from this game, but the Eagles, on the other hand, should be concerned. They have now played two clearly inferior teams, the Commanders and Titans, gave up 20+ points both times, and won by a combined six points.
A win is a win and should never be taken for granted, but the team and its fans cannot feel overwhelmed with confidence from what they’ve seen so far.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Vikings @ Bears (CHI -4.5 -> +2.5) LOSS
The second leg of the teaser, and the one that caused it to fail, was the Minnesota Vikings at the Chicago Bears (+2.5). This one just felt like everything that could possibly go wrong was going to happen. If, before the game, it was guaranteed that the Vikings would score only nine points, not a soul would have picked them to win.
After the Bears’ record-setting Week 1 offensive performance, they seemed primed to carry that momentum into their home opener. Evidently, that was not the case. The wet and rainy conditions weren’t conducive to a high-flying offense, but they weren’t the reason for the loss.
Turnovers and not converting in the red zone completely cost Chicago the game. D’Andre Swift fumbled on the goal line, and then there was a 23-yard field goal blocked later on. That’s ten points that should have been automatic that never went on the board, and were the difference between winning and losing.
The Caleb Williams injury in the fourth quarter obviously wasn’t ideal, but Tyson Bagent did drive down the field at the end of the game and nearly pulled off the comeback. Hopefully the cart ride didn’t exacerbate Williams’ PULLED HAMSTRING (yes, he was carted off for a pulled hammy), and he can get back on the field as soon as possible.
It sucks to lose, but Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores deserve a major tip of the cap. They came into a division rival’s house with a backup QB against a top offense and got the job done. Not many coaches could have gotten their team to perform how they did under those circumstances.
Against The Spread: Bengals @ Texans (HOU -2.5) LOSS
The first single bet was the Cincinnati Bengals at the Houston Texans (-2.5). This seemed like it would be a spot where the Texans would get back on track at home after a close loss against a top team, but that was not to be.
The stat sheet doesn’t tell the full story, but the Bengals dominated this game. Nico Collins did not play, and that loss was clearly more of a problem than anticipated. The thought process was that even without Collins playing, the Texans would lean on the running game and take some pressure off CJ Stroud. Houston apparently did not have that same idea.
The Texans decided to give up on the run almost immediately and have Stroud try to outduel Joe Burrow. That makes sense, right? To be fair, they were not having much success on the ground, as David Montgomery and Woody Marks combined for 14 carries and 18 yards. Even with the lack of success, abandoning the run was a mistake. The game was never a blowout, so it’s not as if they were trying to cut into a huge deficit and needed to score a ton of points in a hurry. The split ended up being 56 passes compared to 18 rushes, and that rarely results in success.
The Houston defense did what it could against an offense riddled with weapons. They kept the game within striking distance, but the offense couldn’t play complementary football and didn’t hold up their end of the bargain. The Bengals were also smart on offense with how they balanced the run and pass, and didn’t turn the ball over. They knew if they didn’t give the Texans’ offense any short fields, their defense had a good chance to stop them.
It’s only a two-game sample size against two not-so-great offenses, but maybe Cincy finally has themselves a defense? If that’s the case, and Burrow and friends can get rolling, that is an extremely scary development for the rest of the NFL.
Against The Spread: Jaguars @ Broncos (JAX +2.5) LOSS
The final bet on the Week 2 slate was the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at the Denver Broncos. This was somewhat of a revenge bet against the Broncos after they were one of the Week 1 Against the Spread losses. That may have been a mistake, as betting with hate in the heart is usually not rewarded, but the Jags still seemed like a live dog in this matchup.
This was an especially disappointing loss because Jacksonville played well enough to win. They led 13-3 in the third quarter and went into the fourth still up 13-6 before surrendering two touchdowns that decided the game. Denver dominated the second half and outscored them 17-3 in that span.
In retrospect, a strong response from the Broncos at home after an embarrassing loss last week should have been expected. The Mile High home-field advantage is a real thing, and even though they would never admit it, the elevation may have gotten to the visiting Jaguars in the second half and could explain the collapse.
In spite of this loss, the Jags have the look of a good football team. They are currently the only team in their division with a victory, and will be better at closing games out as the season goes on. Bettors should not be shy about going back to the well with them in the future.
Again, this was undoubtedly a disappointing week of betting, but as teams play more games, it will be easier to get more accurate reads on who they really are. More locks are coming; keep the faith. To quote the great Bill Belichick, “We’re on to Cincinnati.”
