A bombshell article from The Athletic gave the public what is arguably the most accurate list of NIL budgets for universities around the country, highlighting a great deal about what it takes to have success in college football, and it may not be what most people think.
The prevailing thought about how NIL relates to success in college football is that the teams with the biggest budgets will win the most games. If a team is able to consistently pay the best players, then logic would dictate that they would have the best teams. The 2026 season has already proven this notion false.
According to the article, the Oregon Ducks have the second-highest NIL budget in the country, estimated to be in the range of $48-54 million. Only the Ohio State Buckeyes have a higher budget, yet the Ducks currently find themselves at the No. 20 spot in the AP Top 25. This is after a loss to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are among the bottom 10 in Power Four NIL budgets ($15-19 million).
While a high budget doesn’t guarantee a win on any given Saturday, it clearly helps. Seven of the top 10 highest budgets are ranked in the top 10 of the AP poll. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will find their way into the postseason, though, which is the ultimate goal for the majority of teams across the country.
Consistently Earning College Football Playoff Berths Requires a Different Look At Teams’ NIL Budget
If a university wants to ensure consistent appearances in the College Football Playoff, a bird’s-eye view of the NIL budget can be misleading. The more important thing to take into account is the school’s NIL budget in relation to the rest of its conference.
According to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have a 43% chance to make the CFP. The USC Trojans, who are just one spot behind them in the AP poll, only have a 20% chance to make the CFP. USC ($37-40 million) is right behind Texas Tech ($38-42 million) on The Athletic’s NIL budget list. Despite a relatively negligible difference in budgets and similar results on the field thus far, Texas Tech’s playoff chances significantly outweigh USC’s.
The main thing to note about the NIL difference between these two teams is how their budgets compare to the rest of the conference. Texas Tech blows the rest of the Big 12 out of the water with an NIL budget that is nearly double that of the next closest team.
While the Trojans have the third-highest budget in the Big Ten, they are far off from conference-leading Ohio State. Not only that, but there is a group of about three to four teams that are right on their heels in terms of budget. Over a season of nine conference games, that makes for a significant increase in games against teams with similar NIL budgets.
In conference play, the highest-budgeted team Texas Tech will play is the TCU Horned Frogs, who have a budget range of $22-25 million. Alternatively, USC’s conference opponents will bottom out around that range. Teams like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Washington Huskies have similar budgets, while other competition like the Oregon Ducks and Indiana Hoosiers far outrank any teams on the Red Raiders’ schedule in terms of NIL budget.
Other teams with higher budgets than Texas Tech, like the Ole Miss Rebels and LSU Tigers, still have lower chances to make the playoffs according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. A team with an even higher chance to make the CFP due to how much higher their budget is compared to the rest of their conference is the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami sits at a 78% chance to make the playoffs, even after beating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons by just two scores. Like Texas Tech, their budget nearly doubles the next-highest budget in the ACC, which belongs to a Clemson Tigers program that has struggled immensely in 2026.
Until the Wild West of NIL budgets eventually sorts itself out, budget in relation to the rest of the conference is one of the most important factors when determining CFP contention. The Nebraska Cornhuskers, UCLA Bruins, and Florida Gators of the world would find themselves among the apex of the ACC or the Big 12. Instead, they are left in the dust with minimal CFP chances, as their NIL budgets are simply average for their respective conferences.
