Should the field of American golfers be worried about a resurgent group of European players, eager to pull off an upset at the 126th US Open? Americans have reigned supreme in the US Open over the past 10 years, hoisting the trophy eight out of 10 times, including the last three championships. Scottie Scheffler, the #1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings, is the odds-on favorite to win this U.S. Open and complete the career Grand Slam. So why should he and his fellow Americans be worried about a resurgent group of European players, eager to pull off an upset?
European Golfers Will Pack The Leaderboard At Shinnecock Hills
Historically, European golfers are renowned for their precision and accuracy, especially with their irons. Players like Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood consistently rank high in statistical categories that measure components like Strokes Gained: Approach to Green and Proximity to the Hole. Analysts like the Golf Channel’s Paul McGinley and Brandel Chamblee have noted that Shinnecock Hills is a second-shot course, meaning those aforementioned statistical categories are as important this week as ever.
Shinnecock is an American links-style course with wide fairways, feathery fescue, and severely sloping green complexes that could play, with the wind and firm conditions, more like a British Open than a US Open.
With forecasted winds between 10 and 20mph with higher gusts, ball striking will be at a premium this week. Players who can control their ball in the wind while placing it in small sections of the greens will have a distinct advantage over those who struggle flighting their ball. This bodes well for European players who are often more accustomed to playing in windier conditions than their American counterparts.
The last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock in 2018, the leaderboard stacked up with Europeans, including six in the Top 10 on the final leaderboard. Three of those players are in the field this week and eager to build on that previous success: Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood.
The Fitzpatricks Lead a Strong US Open Field
Matt Fitzpatrick is the last European player to win the U.S. Open in 2022. He is fourth this season in Strokes Gained: Approach to Green on the PGA Tour, and fourth in Greens In Regulation %, as well. Couple those statistics with his three wins on the PGA Tour this year, and it’s easy to see why Fitzpatrick’s name could be in the mix on Sunday.
Justin Rose, at age 45, is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s already carded two Top 10s at the year’s previous two majors, the Masters and the PGA Championship. Statistically, he’s also having one of the best years of his career in terms of ball striking, ranking 18th in SG: Approach to Green and 13th in GIR%.
Tommy Fleetwood is another European player to keep an eye on this week.
The Englishman finished in solo second place the last time the U.S. Open was played at Shinnecock. His blistering, final-round 63 tied the U.S. Open single-round scoring record and saw him finish just one shot back of eventual champion Brooks Koepka.
Rory McIlroy, the World #2 and reigning Masters champion, also believes good things are in store for the Euros this week.
“There’s a lot of talented golfers coming out of Europe and out of the U.K.,” said McIlroy in his press conference on Tuesday. “I think, just over time, we’ve got a lot more comfortable with the style of golf you need to play and the setups around here.” McIlroy continued, “I would say this is more of a UK/European-style test than the first two majors at Augusta and Aronominck, so it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see a few players from Europe and the UK in contention Sunday.”
The year’s first two majors, as it happens, were won by Europeans – Rory McIlroy at the Masters and Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship. After this week, the Europeans may own a 3-0 advantage over the rest of the world in the 2026 major championships.
