The Boston Red Sox have pulled off a miracle and gone from last place to third place in the AL East standings. Their 15-game win streak was exactly what they needed for playoff contention, but despite their recent success, Boston will be an October sham.
Red Sox Behind The Streak
This 15-game winning streak is misleading because of the teams Boston played. Eight of their 15 wins came against sub .500 teams, including the Los Angeles Angels, the New York Mets, and the Baltimore Orioles. The primary counter-argument against the soft schedule claim is Boston’s series against the Chicago White Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. Sweeping the first-place teams in the AL Central and AL East divisions is remarkable.
This does provide a glimmer of hope for the Red Sox, especially considering they blew out Chicago 8-1 on July 7th and beat Tampa Bay 10-0 immediately following the All-Star break. They now have a 60.9% chance to make the playoffs, which is a huge jump from 9.4% a month ago.
Not all of Boston’s games were a runaway, however. They barely survived in a 2-1 win against Chicago and relied on a four-run seventh-inning comeback for their 7-6 nail-biter with Tampa Bay. Rather than proving the Red Sox are 100% ready for the postseason elite, the squeakers show how thin the margin for error is. Instead of complete dominance, like a true October-ready team, Boston walked on a tightrope. Two series sweeps against division leaders don’t erase the last place they were in before the All-Star break.
The Red Sox’s illusion of dominance ended with a 5-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles, a team sitting below them in the division standings. Boston’s offense went quiet outside of a single RBI from designated hitter Masataka Yoshida, while starting pitcher Eduardo Rivera gave up four runs in the first inning. This should be a wake-up call for a team on the verge of postseason contention.
Wins versus contenders hold a greater weight than those against last-place teams when predicting October success. There are no bottom feeders in the playoffs. Every weakness is exposed, every mistake can be fatal, and relying on come-from-behind heroics against top-tier teams is unsustainable for a deep playoff run.
Historic Streaks Don’t Guarantee October Success
Historically, teams that have massive winning periods in late summer have been quickly eliminated in October. The 2002 Oakland Athletics are a perfect example. They had a historic 20-game winning streak, demolishing their competition for a month on their way to first place in the AL West.
Similarly to Boston, Oakland played a lot of mediocre teams, including the Royals, Guardians, Tigers, and White Sox. All those teams had a .500 or worse record, and the only real competition the A’s had during that stretch was with the Minnesota Twins. When it was time to face off against the Twins in the ALDS, their win streak meant nothing, and Minnesota eliminated them.
The same thing happened to the Cleveland Guardians in 2017. They tore through a late-season schedule consisting of mostly mediocre teams that resulted in a 22-game win streak. With a 102-60 record, Cleveland entered October looking invincible.
They were quickly eliminated, though, by the New York Yankees in the ALDS. After taking a commanding 2-0 series lead, Cleveland collapsed and lost three straight games to be abruptly eliminated on their own home turf. Both franchises learned that racking up wins in a soft summer schedule doesn’t mean postseason success.
Boston’s recent streak gave their fans more hope for seeing October baseball, but it doesn’t prove they can consistently compete with the league’s best. If anything, it masks the flaws that had them in last place at the start of the season. Winning games against weaker opponents and surviving tight contests against contenders is not the same as dominating elite competition. The Red Sox may reach the postseason, but once they get there, they’ll be exposed as a counterfeit October team.
