On the most recent episode of the Lights Out Sports Podcast, host of the show Michael Ballentine discussed the MLB trade deadline with guest George Lund of the Locked On Diamondbacks Podcast. The big proposal from Ballentine was a Ketel Marte Diamondbacks-to-Rays trade that would bring three minor league prospects back to Arizona. While the deal seems to be a good fit for the Diamondbacks, Tampa Bay seems to get the short end of the stick in the deal.
In exchange for their shortstop, who is under contract through the 2030 season, Arizona would get Tre Morgan (1B/OF), Santiago Suarez (RHP), and Ty Johnson (RHP). In theory, the deal works because the Rays do need help at the shortstop position. They’d much rather have CJ Abrams, but the cost for him would be significantly higher. Filling a need at a lower cost may not seem like a bad deal until a deeper dive into the numbers is done.
Ketel Marte Diamondbacks Decline
Marte signed a six-year deal worth $105 million after a 2024 season where he hit .292 with 36 home runs and 95 RBI, sporting a .932 OPS. Roughly $17 million per year seems like a reasonable deal for those numbers. The issue has been his play since the contract started. Last year he hit .283 with 28 home runs (.893 OPS), and so far this season, he’s hitting .254 with 19 home runs (.763 OPS).
Marte is about to turn 33 and has declined each of the last two seasons, so if the Rays were to trade for him, they’d be trading for four more years of declining numbers. Even if they were looking to add him for this season, to give them a push in the postseason, they’d be disappointed. Over his last 15 games, Marte is hitting .185 with an OPS of .510. No matter who they send out in return, getting an aging, declining player on a cold streak doesn’t seem like a good move for any team.
The Return Is Too Much
Morgan, who seemed the most desirable piece back to host Ballentine, is the most expendable of the three prospects. He was a third-round pick (88 overall) in the 2023 MLB Draft out of LSU, after winning a National Championship. He is the 29th-rated prospect in the team’s farm system (second-highest-rated first baseman behind Xavier Isaac). Through 34 games in AAA this season, he is hitting .248 with 11 home runs and a .917 OPS.
Suarez is ranked 13th in Tampa’s top prospect list, after signing as a Venezuelan teenager in 2022. He has a fastball that sits in the low 90’s, and currently has a 5-3 record with a 5.18 ERA in AA Montgomery. His location is fantastic, striking out 69 batters to just nine walks on the year. He has peaked physically and could still be two years away, but then again, he is only 21 years old.
Johnson would be the actual headliner return in the deal. The 6’6 righty was a 15th-round pick (446th overall) in 2023, out of Ball State. His fastball can touch 98 miles per hour, but hovers around 93. For the AAA Durham Bulls this season, he is 4-1 through 10 starts with a 3.26 ERA. He has 65 strikeouts to 20 walks, and opponents are hitting just .186 off him. He could be a late-season call-up.
Not Impossible, But Improbable
The Rays will kick the tires on a number of shortstops before the deadline, and with Abrams completely out of their price range, a better option may be Xavier Neto of the Anaheim Angels. There could be a bidding war for him as well, so if push comes to shove, a deal for Marte could come together. It just won’t be at the top of their list.
