The NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has a clear-cut favorite going into most seasons. Ashton Jeanty got all the love going into last season, and ended up not winning. Other years have similarly favored a handful of rookies in the preseason. This year seems to be different. Whether it’s due to a down rookie class or tough situations, this year’s class feels like a shot in the dark, no matter what the bookmakers say.
The Favorites
The award winner has historically been mostly early-round quarterbacks or a skill position player on a solid team with no one above them on the depth chart. This was the case recently with the likes of Tetairoa McMillan, Jayden Daniels, and Ja’Marr Chase. The 2026 Draft saw four offensive players go in the first eight picks.
Those four are the favorites, based on draft position, but there are massive issues with all of them, starting with the favorite Jeremiyah Love (+400). The Cardinals have not invested enough into their offensive line to support their rookie ball carrier. It’s reminiscent of Jeanty last year, who came in with all the hype, but received sub-par blocking up front. The argument can be made that Love’s talent protects him from underperforming, but Barry Sanders would struggle to pick up yards behind that unit.
Fernando Mendoza has the second-best odds (+425). He seems like the obvious choice, being the number one pick, but he may not even play the first half of the season. The Raiders also brought in Kirk Cousins and are paying him $20 million this year. If he were strictly an off-to-the-side mentor, that number would be much closer to the minimum. That price tag and roster construction are clear indicators that Las Vegas intends to protect Mendoza as much as possible. He was the most NFL-ready prospect, but he still needs time to learn.
Carnell Tate (+550) and Jordan Tyson (+600) follow closely behind with similar issues hampering both. Neither will be number one on their depth charts. The Titans signed Wan’Dale Robinson after back-to-back 90+ catch seasons, and the Saints have Chris Olave coming off a 100-catch season. That, combined with both having second-year quarterbacks, shows that both will struggle to receive the volume to produce at an OROY level.
First and Second Round Questions
The rest of the selections in the first two rounds are littered with odd fits and unfortunate situations. Ty Simpson is clearly going to sit all year, barring a catastrophe for the Rams. Kenyon Sadiq is a special talent, but how often is the Jets’ depleted roster going to have the ball? Not to mention, Garrett Wilson and fellow rookie Omar Cooper on the outside.
Makai Lemon is an interesting pick because he is viewed as a long-term starting slot receiver in the league. His ability to find holes in zone coverage in the middle of the field is his calling card. Unfortunately for him, he landed in Philadelphia with a quarterback who has refused to throw to that part of the field in his career.
Jadarian Price could have an opportunity in Seattle, but he is coming into a running back room with which the coaching staff has a relationship. Zach Charbonnet will miss some time while he rehabs his knee injury, but the current reporting makes it sound like it may not be long enough for Price to fully establish himself.
KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, and Carson Beck sound like they could all be intriguing options with some longer odds, but their paths seem too complicated. Concepcion and Boston are going into a season where it’s up in the air who their quarterback is going to be. The two of them will also be competing with each other for targets. Beck isn’t a lock to be the starter, and even if he does, his schedule is a gauntlet with a bad roster.
Tasty Longshots
The arguments for the longshots are just as strong as those against the favorites. These players were lost in the last two days of the draft, but ended up in interesting situations, starting with Nick Singleton.
The former Nittany Lion got picked up by the Titans. That running back room seems to have some continuity, but there are no guarantees. Tony Pollard has been productive, but with so many teams utilizing a tandem back system, that leaves the door open for Singleton. Tyjae Spears has been underwhelming at best, and with Tennessee looking like they’re still miles away, Singleton could take over that second back role. That would allow him even more opportunities if they start out slowly.
Singleton’s former running mate, Kaytron Allen, has also found himself in a positive situation. Allen was drafted by the Commanders in the sixth round, and their depth chart is wide open. Jacory Croskey-Merritt looked like he was going to pop last year, but then finished with just over 800 yards. Rachaad White and Jerome Ford have been around long enough to know exactly what they are. Allen is in a position to take that room by storm and steal touches.
Elijah Sarratt and Ja’Kobi Lane have similar paths to hardware. Both were drafted by the Ravens coming off a nightmare season. Lamar Jackson has never had an elite receiver during his tenure in Baltimore. If either one of them pops, they could shock the league. Sarratt could live up to his “Waffle House” nickname and be a safety net for Jackson by always being open. Lane has all the physical gifts with an elite catch radius to be a deadly redzone threat. Both deserve at least a look.
De’Zhaun Stribling was a consensus over-draft, but the Niners’ receiving core is looking thin. Mike Evans isn’t getting any younger, Ricky Pearsall is a consistent injury risk, and Brandon Aiyuk won’t be on the team. While Stribling was drafted much higher than anticipated, he does have the opportunity to break out in San Francisco.
The last option of note is Drew Allar. Is this likely? Probably not. Is he worth a look with a 42-year-old quarterback ahead of him? Absolutely. It is totally on the board that Aaron Rodgers suffers an injury early in the year that forces Pittsburgh to throw Allar into the fire. The former Penn State quarterback was looked at as a top-level prospect until a poor start to his final year, and an injury occurred. He has all the tools to be productive at the NFL level. He could have a Tyler Shough-type season that has him flirting with OROY.
