Ranger Suarez: A Mid-Rotation Arm With An Ace’s Price Tag?
This offseason, the Red Sox’s biggest priority was finding a number two starting pitcher behind ace Garrett Crochet, and they believe they have done so with the addition of Ranger Suarez. He signed a large 5-year, $130 million deal, which puts him as the 15th highest-paid starting pitcher in the league in terms of AAV (Average Annual Value). Suarez has had a lot of success in his career, especially as a postseason performer, but has struggled to stay healthy for an entire season. He has never in his 8-year-long career made 30 or more starts in a season. When healthy, he has been impressive, posting 12.4 WAR and an ERA of 3.59.
So far in his debut season as a member of the Red Sox, Suarez has been a huge disappointment. His struggles started in Spring Training, as he made 3 starts and posted an ERA of 9.00. He has carried this over into the regular season, posting an 8.64 ERA and giving up 13 hits in just 8.1 innings. This contract has raised immediate questions about whether or not Suarez was even worth this price in the first place.
Being the 15th highest paid starter places Suarez in SP1 territory, but throughout his whole career, he has always been a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Some may justify the big contract because of his playoff success, posting a 1.48 ERA in 42.2 innings, but will this even matter if he struggles enough in the regular season and the team misses the playoffs because of it?
Of course, there is a ton of time for Suarez to turn this around, but this start is concerning. His velocity has been trending downward ever since the 2023 season, and that can catch up to a pitcher, especially as they age. In 2023, his average fastball velocity hit 93.0 mph, but through 2 starts in 2026, it is at 90.8 mph. It is not entirely over for Suarez, but the Red Sox front office would surely love for a quick turnaround, or the next five years could become a disaster.
