The 2026 US Open men’s singles draw is officially out, and several players should feel confident about their road through New York. The absence of world No. 1 Jannik Sinner has created interesting storylines heading into the tournament.
Alexander Zverev enters as the No. 1 seed. Every former US Open champion in the field begins on the opposite side of the bracket from him. Carlos Alcaraz has a manageable opening and second-round matchup, allowing him to work his way back from a wrist injury, while Americans Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz have the chance to make a deep run on home soil.
One dark horse candidate, Rafael Jodar, has a favorable path to the quarterfinals, a chance to put an exclamation mark on his breakout year. The 19-year-old Spaniard is tied for the fifth-best odds to win the tournament (according to DraftKings), alongside Fritz and recent Cincinnati Open champion Arthur Fils.
There’s no easy path when it comes to Grand Slams; surviving seven best-of-five matches is a challenge in itself. These players have draws that could allow them to journey deep into the second week of play at the US Open.
Alexander Zverev
Zverev may have benefited most from the draw. The No. 1 seed opens against Italian Lorenzo Sonego and managed to avoid Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Ben Shelton, and Novak Djokovic on his half of the bracket.
The biggest threats to Zverev would appear to be Jodar, Lorenzo Musetti, and No. 6 Alex de Minaur, his projected quarterfinal opponent. For a player who has reached the US Open final once before, this path is favorable. Making it into the second week of play should be smooth sailing for Zverev; then the real challenge begins.
Zverev broke through this year with his win at Roland Garros and followed it up by making the final at Wimbledon. Instead of having to navigate a side of the bracket loaded with former major champions, like he did earlier this season, the German should be favored in every matchup until the final. Zverev could not have asked for a better opportunity.
Taylor Fritz
Fritz has proven he can play deep into the US Open, reaching the final in 2024 and returning to the quarterfinals last season. He opens against 18-year-old and fellow American Darwin Blanch, with the potential of facing Francisco Cerundolo in the round of 32. His section also includes Gael Monfils, No. 5 seed Flavio Cobolli, and young American Learner Tien. None of these opponents should be overlooked by Fritz, but he avoids several of the biggest names in the field during the first week.
Cobolli, Fritz’s projected round of 16 matchup, will be the first major test for the American. Getting into another quarterfinal at the US Open would be a huge achievement, but Fritz should have a chance to go even further. He may not enter New York as the American receiving the most attention, but his experience at the tournament makes him a serious threat.
Rafael Jodar
Jodar has been one of the most exciting young players in the sport recently. The 19-year-old opens against Thanasi Kokkinakis and has several beatable opponents on his path to week two.
Musetti and Casper Ruud are the biggest obstacles around Jodar. If he manages to get into the second week of play, Zverev would become the major roadblock, but there’s room for the teenager to gain some attention before that happens.
Jodar has shown this season that a deep Grand Slam run could be in the cards. He reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros and continued his hot streak in Washington, reaching the final before falling to Fritz. He also reached the round of 16 in Cincinnati most recently.
The question is whether the young phenom can stay consistent with pressure rising around him. Expectations are high for Jodar at this US Open; his early round matchups could give him the confidence and momentum he needs before eventually meeting higher-seeded opponents.
Jodar isn’t the betting favorite to win Zverev’s quarter, but he could be the dark horse capable of taking down the No. 1 seed.
Ben Shelton
The No. 8 seed, Shelton, begins his tournament against Tallon Griekspoor and sits in the same quarter as Alcaraz. On paper, this would make his path considerably harder. The road to a potential Shelton vs. Alcaraz matchup, however, gives Shelton opportunities to build momentum.
Shelton’s section includes Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, Jiri Lehecka, and No. 29-ranked Cam Norrie. These players could give him some trouble, but if he continues to play the way he has this summer, reaching the second week shouldn’t be a problem.
The American arrives in New York after defending his Canadian Open title. He has demonstrated in past years that he thrives in front of an American crowd, and this year feels no different. Shelton reached the semifinals in 2023 at the US Open; his powerful serve is even more effective on the hard courts this upcoming week.
Normally, drawing the defending champion in the same quarter would be a worst-case scenario, especially when that player is Alcaraz. The uncertainty around Alcaraz’s wrist injury and stamina makes this more of an opportunity to take down one of the monsters of tennis than a disadvantage.
Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz is the biggest question of this year’s tournament. The defending champion hasn’t played in a competitive match since April this year, making his return even more intriguing. His draw gives him a chance to find a groove before facing other elite competitors, though.
The Spaniard opens against Roman Safiullin. Fils, Alexander Bublic, and Tommy Paul are potential threats in his section, while Shelton is the projected quarterfinal matchup. For Alcaraz, the early rounds matter more than usual here. The first of his matches will be about rediscovering his rhythm as much as simply advancing.
This draw gives Alcaraz a chance to do just that. Safiullin is an experienced opponent to face in the first round, but Alcaraz is the obvious favorite. If he can manage to get through the first couple of rounds without spending too much time on the court, his chances of advancing far in the second week increase considerably.
It may be a tough stretch late in the tournament for Alcaraz, but his opening rounds allow him to do exactly what he needs: find his game after months of recovery.
Who Has The Best Path?
Of these five players, Zverev stands out as the clear “winner” of this year’s US Open draw. He avoids every former US Open champion until the final and enters as the favorite to advance on his half of the bracket.
As the No. 1 seed, Zverev cannot face Alcaraz, Shelton, Medvedev, Djokovic, or Fils until the final round, meaning he avoids five of the most dangerous hard-court players. His matches won’t be a cakewalk, but he should be a heavy favorite in every match leading up to the second week.
As Zverev is a player who has already reached the US Open final and enters New York as the No. 1 seed, the bracket has given him yet another reason to make another run at the title and add to his one Grand Slam victory already this year.
