The frenzy of Free Agency Monday is just a day away. Analysts playing the matching game on ESPN, NFL.com, and every football podcast in the nation have dominated everyone’s feed. Perhaps no name has been louder than that of the Colts’ Alec Pierce.
Pierce is coming off a career season with the Indianapolis Colts, hauling in over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns on just 47 receptions. With quarterback Daniel Jones at the helm and later Chargers legend Philip Rivers, the former Cincinnati Bearcat superstar built on his breakout season in 2024, solidifying himself as the Colts’ primary deep threat. With his 4.41 speed and 40.5″ vertical, Pierce displayed his freakish athleticism, blazing past corners on simple go routes or winning contested jump balls, averaging 21 yards per reception. So, why would he be the biggest bust in free agency this year?
On paper, Pierce is everything a team wants in a receiver. He is tall, fast, has great hands, and is only twenty-five years old. In a weak receiver draft and an even weaker free agency pool, Pierce is the top free agent WR on the market. As seen in the past, teams are willing to overpay for positions in need. The former Colts receiver is set for a big payday regardless of whether he is a legitimate number one receiver or not.
Colts Alec Pierce Is JuJu Smith-Schuster 2.0
One concern is that Pierce benefited from a strong cast in the Colts’ offense and its biggest contributor, Jonathan Taylor. The Indianapolis star running-back followed up his 2024 season by gouging defenses for over 1,500 yards on the ground and 18 rushing tds, along with over 300 yards receiving and adding two additional touchdowns through the air. Pierce’s counterpart, Michael Pittman, a solid receiver in his own right, added 80 receptions and over 700 yards, drawing coverage as the Colts’ No. 1 receiver many times. That does not take away from Pierce’s accomplishments, but it does in some context.
Pierce does not let that affect his confidence. He recently sat on the Kay Adams Show, where he confidently stated: “There are not many receivers who have gotten 1,000 yards on under 100 targets…so double the targets and I (am) basically setting the record right there.” The situation is reminiscent of the Pittsburgh Steelers when facing how to handle Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. As a combo, the two receivers, along with Le’Veon Bell, put up huge numbers. At the time, many fans saw Schuster as an elite No. 1 alongside AB. After the departure of AB, Schuster never regained that elite level of play.
Pierce may fall into the same category — a talented receiver who thrives as an elite No. 2. He can play; there is no question about that, but perhaps he is better suited as an elite 2 rather than a team’s primary target. The numbers are impressive. However, context matters, and Pierce’s production may say more about the Colts’ offense than about Pierce as a true No. 1 receiver.
Another red flag is separation. At 2.6 yards of separation per route run, Pierce comes in below the average. In watching film, a lot of his receptions (and even incompletions) are in tight coverage. A great example is in the Steelers-Colts game, where Pierce struggled to get any major separation or YAC on plays where Joey Porter Jr. was in man coverage. He was still able to pull in six catches for 115 yards that day, but required some blown coverages and pinpoint accuracy from his quarterback. The margin for error is small when a receiver cannot make space between himself and the corner.
While Pierce does have strong hands and concentration with bodies all around, the blazing speed seems to be more in play when running deep routes rather than intermediate and short plays. Similar receivers in the past, like Mike Wallace and Braylon Edwards, showed moments of elite talent and athleticism, but were better suited alongside another solid receiver rather than being the team’s No. 1.
When looking at the true No. 1 receivers in the game today, the question has to be asked, is Pierce in the same category? Is he able to stand alongside Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, or Chris Olave? While paper may say one thing, the supporting cast he benefited from, the lack of separation on routes, and even the eye test would argue that he is not at that level. That is in no way to say he cannot help a team or even be a solid player, but he is not that No. 1 guy who can be relied on to consistently beat coverage and dominate the game. Pierce is a good player. Good players can become bad contracts when they’re paid like great ones.
If a team hands Pierce $30 million per year expecting the next Justin Jefferson, they may instead be paying elite money for a solid complementary receiver.
