Lacking a dependable pitching staff for years, the Colorado Rockies’ Chase Dollander and his development could give the franchise a real breakthrough. His 2025 campaign suffered from the same issues most Rockies pitchers have: High walk-rates, high home run rates, and low strikeout numbers.
Starting the 2026 season, Dollander’s numbers have done a complete 180, with a lower home-run and walk rate, and even more strikeouts than innings pitched. His sudden improvement can be chalked up to several factors, including an improved arsenal and one significant increase in a metric pivotal for success at Coors Field.
Rockies’ Chase Dollander’s Success Rests With Revamped Arsenal And Mechanics
Before debuting in the league, Dollander ranked 52nd on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects in 2024, then jumped to number 25 in 2025. Scouts noted his nearly 100-mile-per-hour fastball with serious vertical break, along with a slider that graded at 60 out of a potential 80. Though Dollander posted a 2.59 ERA in 2024 at High-A and Double-A, he ran into serious trouble at the Major League level in 2025 with a 6.52 ERA across 98 innings and 18 home runs.
The fastball, touting a 65 grade from scouts, resulted in a .286 average with 13 home runs due to a lack of movement and a low extension. Dollander also saw a low chase and whiff rate, while he struggled with 12% of all batted balls off the barrel. Some of that could be blamed on the front office promoting him after just one start in Triple-A, shortening his development time.
During the offseason, Dollander visited a Florida-based data scientist, T.J. Galenti, at the Sequence Biolab in Tampa to work on mechanics and setup. Suddenly, he’s not only been the team’s best pitcher in years, but could make a potential dark horse run at a Cy Young award.
Dollander’s fastball jumped from a -11 run value in 2025 to seven in 2026, while his breaking ball turned positive as well. He’s also enjoyed a higher chase rate at 31%, along with a 30% whiff rate. Over 50% of his balls hit into play are on the ground, which bodes well for a home run-friendly environment like Coors Field.
Dollander’s four-seam fastball added one extra mile per hour, and saw its batting average allowed cut in half to .120 through 50 at-bats. His secondary pitches, including the sinker and curveball, also saw decreases in average and more consistent vertical movement early in 2026. The only downside for him is his low weak-contact rate, sitting at 3.8%.
Two things to note in his mechanics: One, Dollander’s arm slot angle dropped by two degrees. Two, his extension improved from 6.1 inches to 6.4 inches, which matters significantly to any batter. That might also explain that batters are no longer pulling the ball, rather hitting to the opposite field, limiting their power and BABIP.
Dollander’s Development Might Help Rockies Solve The Coors Field Puzzle
Unlocking Dollander’s potential could also reveal clues for the Rockies organization on how to properly develop their young pitchers and prepare them for the Coors challenge. It doesn’t stop at him, however, as free agent signing Tomoyuki Sugano and longtime veteran Kyle Freeland, before his injury, have pitched quite well. Even Antonio Senzatela, who lost 15 games in 2025, started the year with a strong bullpen performance.
The aerodynamics of Coors Field have always been a challenge for the team, where the high elevation completely changes the way a ball moves, not just when it gets hit, but when it’s thrown. In a study done by Alan Nathan at the University of Illinois, a breaking ball pitched at Fenway breaks 18% less than the same pitch at Coors due to the “Magnus” force. That force, for those unfamiliar, occurs from the movement of a ball’s spin, causing it to move in any direction.
Given that Dollander went to a data scientist to figure out how to fix his mechanics, the team might benefit from recruiting data and sports scientists to tailor pitchers for Coors Field. If a biolab has equipment that can break down the mechanics of a pitcher and spit out fixes for his mechanics, the Rockies must consider using that technology in their own labs. The team has a research and development team, but if an independent facility does a better job, then it’s not being done right.
The last time the Rockies had a pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 in a single season was in 2020 with Senzatela and Germán Márquez. For a full season, that was Jon Gray in 2019. If the team wants to get serious, they have to make that the benchmark and have at least two pitchers under that coveted 4.00 ERA threshold. Dollander can do it, but who will be the second one?
