Ben Rice’s breakout season has put him in early contention for the Most Valuable Player award for the American League in 2026. In the first 33 games he’s played, the first baseman has a league-leading .343/.455/1.214 slash line and 12 home runs. Rice is also improving in his walk-to-strikeout ratio early this year.

It’s been a bit of a road for Rice, who came into the New York Yankees farm system as a 12th-round selection in the 2021 MLB draft. He exploded into the prospect rankings list in 2023 after a strong season in High-A and Double-A, with a 1.000 OPS in both levels. That momentum continued for him into Triple-A before his debut in 2024.

What New York Yankees fans should know is that Rice’s breakout season was a long time coming, given what he did in 2024 and 2025. Even though he’s missed a few games so far due to a hand injury, which could affect his performance at the plate, he might be right next to Aaron Judge in the statistics department this year.

Ben Rice’s Breakout Comes Down To Putting The Profile Together

Rice was considered to be the unluckiest hitter in 2024, based on his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and the actual number. For those unfamiliar, the xwOBA is a formula based on launch angle, contact quality, and exit velocity, estimating a player’s on-base percentage.

Given that Rice had one of the best barrel percentages and a strong hard-hit rate for a rookie, his xwOBA was calculated at .338. In reality, his actual weighted on-base average was at .269, a difference of -0.07 between the two and the highest across all batters with at least 100 at-bats. He also had the largest difference in expected and actual batting average, hitting well below the Mendoza line at .171 versus an expected .229 average.

In the 2025 season, Rice had better luck with a .358 on-base average versus a .391 wxOBA. During that year, several things happened, including a sudden increase in his barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, and squared-up batting rates. He also started hitting more ground balls and line drives, seeing a decrease in fly-ball rate from 33% in 2024 to 28.5% in 2025. There was more usage of the ground and finding the holes rather than sending out flyballs over 64% of the time.

Rice saw a jump in ground balls across the zone, with most areas in the center and lower right-half of the plate jumping over 40%, while line drives remained between 20 to 30% across the zone. The only area he saw struggles in was the upper left corner of the zone, with a 56% popup rate and a .083 batting average. Compared to 2024, there was better contact quality and exit velocity across the zone.

Through the first month of 2026, Rice has kept up his emerging hitter profile by maintaining 90th percentile or better in sweet-spot, barrel, hard-hit rates, and even exit velocities. The versatile Rice is even laying off pitches up in the zone, while holding 40% or better line-drive rates in the bottom of the zone. Of course, some of that could be attributed to more muscle gain in 2025, but a more open stance could be propelling his career to higher levels.

The secret of Rice’s breakout lies in a more balanced hitter profile and not a pure power hitter, seeing his groundball rate at 45% so far this year. He’s also pulling the ball at a strong rate, nearly 55%, which could help if he consistently finds the hole between second and first base. He might not have to give up the pull profile due to the lack of heavy shifts from the new rules and very hard contact on the ground.

Rice Also Mashing Breaking, Offspeed Pitches At Better Rate

There’s also another aspect to Rice’s improved play in 2026: The ability to hit breaking and offspeed pitches more effectively.

In 2025, Rice struggled to hit the ball consistently against breaking and offspeed pitches, barely hitting above the Mendoza line. He still somehow managed to have a slugging percentage above .400 for both of those pitch classes, suggesting that if he sustained contact, he could be a dangerous hitter. He actually was in line with his expected batting and slugging averages on breaking pitches, but well underneath on offspeed.

To highlight Rice’s jump this year against breaking balls, he went from .213 last year to .317 this year in a short amount of time. He also has a .683 slugging percentage in 54 at-bats against the pitch, nearly .200 better than his expected slugging. His whiff rate also collapsed from 36% to 26% in one year. Despite it only being a small sample size, Rice’s ability to hit breaking balls more effectively is important.

That also goes for offspeed pitches, where Rice jumped 70 batting average points from .224 to .294. The only real downside regarding his new hitting profile is a higher whiff rate on offspeed pitches, but that could be ironed out as the season continues. Of course, he is also continuing to pound the fastball for a .352 average and a slugging percentage just under .800.

Final Thoughts On Yankees’ Early MVP-Candidate Ben Rice

Rice is quickly putting together what made him someone to watch in 2024 and what worked in 2025. Aside from the weight gain and the new open stance, he’s also been hitting against lefties better, which could also be an explanation. Against lefties so far in 2026, he’s batting .355/.444/1.283 with five home runs. That’s a far better improvement from .208/.271/.752 in 2025.

The Yankees somehow got serious value in a 12th-round draft pick and turned Rice into a potential MVP candidate. While it’s unlikely that he will continue to hit at this clip for the entire season, it’s important to note how he worked his way up to this position. There’s even a chance he could move to the designated-hitter spot when Giancarlo Stanton retires, but that’s a story for another day.