There is an interesting, somewhat controversial debate going on in some circles regarding Ty Simpson NFL Draft stock. Is he the best quarterback in the class? Dan Orlovsky is a big proponent of this argument, and it has merit, as Simpson looks like the most pro-ready passer in a weak quarterback class. National champion and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is the consensus first overall pick in most mock drafts due to his production, but there is some doubt about parts of his game translating to the NFL. Which QB is more deserving of being taken number one, and which one fits what the Las Vegas Raiders want to do in 2026?
What Makes Ty Simpson NFL Draft Stock So High
The current argument for Simpson being taken with the number one overall pick is that he has better tape than Mendoza. What Simpson was asked to do at Alabama was more akin to what NFL offenses demand from quarterbacks. He made NFL-caliber throws and decisions on a Crimson Tide offense that he had to carry to the College Football Playoff. The Alabama offensive line allowed 33 sacks in 2025, and WR Ryan Williams regressed with almost 200 fewer receiving yards and six fewer touchdowns than the season prior. The only real knocks on Simpson are his limited starting experience and injury concerns, so the argument against him isn’t about his ability. The Raiders will have to decide between Simpson’s pro readiness and Mendoza’s upside.
Mendoza and Indiana had an incredible run on their way to the national championship last season, but what does that mean for his NFL potential? The Hoosiers were a heavy RPO offense in 2025, meaning the reads that he was making were nothing like the reads he will be making in the NFL. Mendoza also didn’t face elite competition every week until Indiana reached the Playoff, as IU ranked 41st nationally in strength of schedule (Alabama was 5th). He does have prototypical NFL size and solid mechanics, but the lack of elite arm strength and ability to escape pressure adds risk to taking Mendoza with the first overall pick.
These knocks on Mendoza don’t mean that he is a bad player. It does mean that he needs to go to a team that will allow him to develop, even if it means the Hoosier QB has to sit out a year or two. If teams are taking a quarterback with the first overall pick, the expectation is that they are starting immediately. There’s a chance that Mendoza will struggle mightily if he starts right away, and Simpson is a better fit for where the Raiders are at the moment.
A part of this argument that is getting overlooked is how either Simpson or Mendoza fits with the Raiders. The only quarterback on the roster currently is Aidan O’Connell, meaning that whoever gets taken with the number one pick is probably going to be the starter on opening day. New head coach Clint Kubiak will be using the zone run, play-action offense that the Kubiaks are known for, so a QB with some mobility would make sense for the Raiders. Las Vegas is looking to win now with the moves it made in the offseason, and Simpson makes the most sense for the Silver and Black with the first overall pick.
