The NHL and NBA draft lottery systems are stupid for many reasons. The lottery is often unfair to bad teams, fans think it’s rigged, it doesn’t actually stop tanking, and it can be confusing.
The Draft Lottery Systems Downsides
These lotteries are often unfair to bad teams. Teams that finish with the worst records in the NHL and NBA don’t automatically get a top-tier pick. Franchises that miss the playoffs get a percentage of the number one pick odds based on their regular season record; then it’s a draft system based on those odds. This idea is ridiculous because bad teams drop in drafts, where teams that just barely miss the playoffs jump up at times.
This ultimately screws over the teams that had the worst season, keeping them from improving, and the draft is meant to help teams that struggle during the season. It should be like the NFL, where regular-season record determines draft position. There is a conspiracy that this would lead to more tanking, but that issue already exists. NBA commissioner Adam Silver is looking to make changes to prevent tanking with a new “3-2-1” lottery proposal and an anti-tanking reform to prevent the issue. These aren’t set in stone, but are likely to happen.
Fans around the world think the lottery is rigged, in large part because of the teams that keep winning it. Some of the crazy results are definitely a cause for suspicion. Unpredictability is the theme of the lotteries, but it seems like favoritism is too. Some franchises seem to “get lucky” more often than others, and fans of every team aren’t blind to it.
The draft lottery doesn’t actually prevent teams from tanking. When watching regular-season games, it’s obvious that some teams don’t seem to be putting their best foot forward to win games. Even though they may be losing on purpose, and even though it’s getting them better odds in the lottery, the worst teams aren’t necessarily getting a top-three pick.
Despite the lottery on TV getting good ratings, fans are still confused by what is actually happening. The rules are complex; there are always protected picks and unprotected picks, and some teams get odds from other teams because of trades. By the time a team card is taken out of an envelope, the fans watching at home have to just assume that everything is legit.
NBA And NHL Lottery History
Historically, teams with low odds have still won the lottery. The Atlanta Hawks won the 2024 draft lottery, even though they had just a 3% chance to get the top pick. The Dallas Mavericks received the number one pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, despite having just a 1.8% chance of doing so. The Brooklyn Nets were one of the three teams with the best odds for the top pick in 2026, but ended up with the sixth-overall selection.
The Indiana Pacers may have gotten shafted the most in the 2026 lottery. Tied with Washington and Brooklyn for the best odds at the top pick, they ended up fifth overall and had to give the pick to the Los Angeles Clippers as compensation from a previous trade, since the pick was top-four protected.
The New York Islanders won the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, despite originally being projected to land the 10th pick. The following year, the San Jose Sharks jumped seven spots from a projected ninth overall pick to second.
Over the last few years, the lottery has had a significant impact on franchises’ futures and has too much power. The fact that a draft system based on odds can either help a solid team significantly or dismantle an already bad team is stupid.
