The New York Knicks are still celebrating their first NBA Championship victory in 53 years, but oddsmakers are already too high on the San Antonio Spurs for 2027. Bettors have chosen San Antonio as the favorite to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy at +250. On paper, listing them as the favorite seems logical given their second-place finish in the Western Conference and their long postseason run. There’s no denying that the Spurs will be an incredible basketball team with their youthful core, including Victor Wembanyama. To crown a team that just lost the NBA Finals in five games as the definitive team to beat in 2027, though, is jumping the gun.

The Spurs’ Collapse Shows They Aren’t Ready Yet

Following San Antonio’s Game 5 defeat, Wembanyama told reporters that his team dominated for most of the series. Statistically, Victor isn’t wrong, as the Spurs led in first-half points for four of the five games. When things were clicking for San Antonio, they looked unstoppable and destined to win the championship.

There is a difference, though, between temporary dominance and championship-level dominance. The Spurs did not lose the series because they lacked talent. They had plenty of talent with the core of Victor, Julian Champagnie, and Dylan Harper. San Antonio lost because their offense could not consistently perform for all 48 minutes in each game.

Look no further than the catastrophic collapse in Game 4. The Spurs held a commanding 29-point lead at halftime — a margin that should guarantee a victory in any professional basketball setting. Instead, the Spurs’ offense was grounded to a screeching halt, scoring 30 points in the second half compared to the Knicks’ 58 points. A championship favorite, no matter how big the odds are, does not surrender a 29-point lead in June. That collapse is a warning siren that the roster might not be ready to be championship favorites.

Wembanyama’s Inconsistency Adds Concern

To understand why the Spurs are heavy favorites right now, it’s because of their offensive cornerstone: Wembanyama. Bettors instantly take notice when a franchise cornerstone gets hot during a game. Take, for example, Victor’s Game 3 performance when he scored 32 points. Without a performance like that, the Spurs would’ve been in a 3-0 series deficit. To be a championship favorite, though, a franchise cornerstone must be evaluated more deeply than just points scored, and the amount of minutes played. Wembanyama’s game-to-game performance throughout the series was an absolute statistical rollercoaster. 

Victor’s 26 points in Game 1 look like a typical performance for a crucial piece of the Spurs’ offense, but he shot 2-of-9 from deep and had only made 28.6% of his field goals. Game 3 was the one game in which Victor actually looked like himself, with 32 points, 11-of-18 field goal shooting, and 2-of-4 from the three-point line.

When the stakes got higher for the Spurs in Game 4 and an easy chance at victory to tie the series was present, Wembanyama’s performance wasn’t the same. He finished with 24 points, but needed 25 field goal attempts (36.0% FG) and made 25% of his three-point attempts to get there. In the ultimate elimination, Victor had another below-average performance. He posted a meager 19 points on 7-of-19 (36.8%) from the floor and an abysmal 1-of-6 (16.7%) from the perimeter. Basketball is a five-on-five game, but the Spurs’ offense didn’t pull its own individual weight. That is not the efficiency profile of an inevitable +250 championship anchor.

The Spurs are undeniably close with their youthful core of raw talent, including Wembanyama, Champagnie, and Harper. With a core like this, the Spurs’ future looks bright, and another Finals appearance is bound to happen. Championship favorites, however, are defined by consistency and the ability to finish games when everything is on the line. San Antonio has shown that they currently lack the consistency and ability to finish strong when they have the lead. Vegas may be betting on potential, but until the Spurs show they can sustain elite play for a full series, crowning them as the team to beat in 2027 feels premature.