In an effort to hold onto their young star running back, a Jets Breece Hall transition tag is the most likely outcome. New York has recently said they plan to tag their 1,000-yard rusher from last season, but declined to specify which tag. If the team chooses to franchise tag him, it would guarantee Hall $14.5 million in 2026 and reward the Jets with draft pick compensation if another team chooses to sign him.
The transition tag would give the Jets seven days to match any offer that Hall receives in free agency, but it does not compensate the team if they decline to match. This would guarantee Hall a salary of $11.7 million this year. The former Iowa State Cyclone is still only 24 (he turns 25 in May) and has shown a great deal of promise, but not enough for top-five money in the league.
NCAA Domination And NFL Potential
Hall played in 12 games as a freshman for Iowa State, carrying the ball 186 times for 897 yards (4.8ypc) and nine touchdowns. He stepped up his game as a sophomore, leading the conference in carries (279), yards (1,572), and touchdowns (21). In his junior year, he ran the ball 253 times for 1,464 yards (5.8ypc) and 20 touchdowns. He did enough to be selected in the second round (36th overall) by the Jets in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Hall suffered a knee injury in his rookie season, but before that, he showed off his 4.39 speed by averaging 5.8 yards per carry through seven games. He has been durable since his return, playing in 16, 17, and 17 games over the last three seasons and amassing more than 2,900 yards and 14 touchdowns. It would make sense that the Jets would want to lock him up for at least the next four seasons, but at what dollar amount?
Jets Breece Hall Transition Reasoning
Hall did run for over 1,000 yards on a three-win team, and his quarterback play didn’t exactly take pressure off of him. The question is about how he is valued league-wide, not just for the Jets. If he were slapped with the franchise tag, he would be making more than Jonathan Taylor (1,585 yards and 18 touchdowns last year), James Cook (1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns), and Kyren Williams (1,252 yards and 10 touchdowns).
His value is probably similar to Javonte Williams (though Hall has been more consistent), who just signed with the Dallas Cowboys for $8 million a year. The Jets would love to get a deal like that done with Hall, but until they do, it’s a safe bet that the transition tag figure of $11.7 million will be an easier pill to swallow if they don’t. The golden rule about running backs has been, “Don’t draft them in the first round and don’t sign them to large extensions”.
That philosophy has been bucked as of late, even with teams going more and more to a carousel of backs. An interesting prospect could be the New England Patriots swooping in to grab Hall on a three or four-year deal that New York refuses to match. The Patriots just released Antonio Gibson, but Hall’s style may be too similar to Teyveon Henderson, and Rhamondre Stevenson can’t be cut for a profit until next year.
The Kansas City Chiefs could be in play, as could the Washington Commanders. The most likely scenario, though, is that Hall remains with the Jets, not just on the transition tag, but for three years and $25 million. With no quarterback still, and without one on the horizon, the next three seasons could drag on for Hall.
