The Houston Astros’ decline has been a long time coming, thanks to an exodus of veteran players and a lack of immediate-impact prospects over the last three years. As of May 16, the team sits at an ugly 18-28 and is dangerously close to the American League West cellar. That’s a spot they haven’t finished in since 2013, well before Yordan Alvarez or Hunter Brown’s arrival.

Injuries to their core players, including Carlos Correa and Jeremy Pena, are catastrophic enough, along with Hunter Brown’s long recovery timetable. Tatsuya Imai’s sluggish MLB Debut is also hurting the team, posting an ERA over 9.00. What no one seems to be talking about is how bad the team’s farm system is.

Houston’s farm system was ranked 29th-best by MLB.com heading into the 2026 baseball season, and didn’t have any top-100 prospects at the time. While that has changed with the introduction of Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Nyens to the list, the lack of depth seriously impairs this team going forward. In fact, their focus on “winning now” in the last decade might have doomed this organization for the next one.

Houston Astros Decline Starts With Poor First-Round Picks, Or No Picks At All

One of the ways the Astros built a near-dynasty in the late 2010s was through strong draft classes, primarily in the first round each year.

For most of the 2000s, the team did a poor job developing its top draft picks, with only a handful making it to the top. To put it in perspective, the most successful player they brought up was 2009 sixth-round selection Dallas Keuchel, who did win a Cy Young in 2015 and was pivotal in their 2017 World Series run. They did get a few seasons out of other picks, including 2004 second-rounder Hunter Pence and 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro. Otherwise, most of their drafts yielded little fruit.

When Jeff Luhnow was hired as the general manager in 2011, the team suddenly started striking gold in the draft thanks to his expertise in scouting and development. Luhnow’s first year netted all-star outfielder George Springer, while 2012 saw shortstop Carlos Correa and pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. join the mix. After striking out in 2013 and 2014, they had a successful first round, selecting third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker. This core combined for two World Series titles and seven consecutive AL West crowns.

Busts in 2016 and 2018 were followed by forfeited picks in 2021 and 2022, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal. The Astros have found limited success in mid-draft players like Spencer Arrighetti and third-rounder Jeremy Pena, but have not been able to hit on their first-round picks.

The 2021 and 2022 first-round picks Houston lost would have been players on the big league club now, and their absence is felt. There are significant holes in the infield, catcher position, and in their rotation. While some of the mid-tier selections could find themselves in these roles soon, the lack of star power on the team has brought its dynasty to a close.

The State Of The Houston Astros Farm System

If the bad drafts and lack of investment or trades to get prospects are the cause of the Houston Astros’ decline, then the current prospect field is a symptom of their negligence. Third baseman Cam Smith was the only Astros player on the preseason top 100 prospects, and he has been replaced by the aforementioned Neyens and Alvarez.

The problem is that Alvarez and Neyens are both playing in Single-A, several years from the show. While Alvarez is struggling to recapture his 2025 success early on, Neyens is slugging .260/.437/.916 with six home runs in 28 games. Then there’s the issue of the other prospects outside of the two top-100 candidates.

Outside the top 100 prospects, the Astros have a couple of hidden gems, including 2025 third-round outfield pick Ethan Frey and right-handed reliever Alimber Santa. Besides that, there’s little to root for in terms of depth and immediate impact for this team. Only seven players on the list are expected to see playing time this year, with an additional eight next year. Everyone else is still three to five years away, and grades a below-average 40 overall on the 20-80 scale. In fact, only eight of the players on the list grade above a 40 in their scouting reports.

As of May 16, the team’s entire pitching staff and their infield are questionable at best, and bad at their worst. Jose Altuve is 36, and his offensive production is dipping fast, suggesting there might be a black hole at that position until Neyens is eventually shifted over there. In that event, however, who would replace Correa if he gets hurt and his productivity goes down? Is the team stuck with Shay Whitcomb for a while? Do they call up infield utilityman Nick Monistere early?

While the team does have an abundance of arms on the bottom half of the list, those players have unimpressive arsenals or are struggling with severe control issues. Hudson Leach, one of their projected call-ups, has 19 walks in 12.2 innings, while right-hander Jose Fleury also has 15 walks in 12.1 innings with two home runs. The good news is that some 2025 draft arms, including Nick Potter and Gabel Pentecost, are pitching well with opposing batting averages under the Mendoza line and low WHIPs.

Given the lack of capital and development from the team in their farm system, there’s real concern that the Astros could end up in the cellar of the AL West and stay there for a while. It doesn’t help that the team can’t trade many prospects for impact-now players. Hard times for Houston and its fans are ahead, but great news for fans who are still scornful of the team in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. They will be banging trash cans in celebration for a while.