The Carolina Panthers draft may be over, but the repercussions of each pick are just starting. Historically, that may be a great thing, and one of the few things that management and fans can look forward to. There’s no doubt that Carolina has its problems. Despite making the playoffs last season, the team still had a losing record (8-9). In fact, the team is 27-58 over the last five years. So, why the optimism?
It’s because the Panthers may be the best team in the NFL….when it comes to the draft. They don’t win many games, the offense is anemic, and the defense is a perennial disappointment, but one thing they excel at is scouting and drafting college football players. One of the biggest indicators of that success can be found in fifth-year options that are exercised.
The Fifth-Year Option Measurement
First-round draft picks get four-year deals, just like players in every other round of the draft. The biggest difference is that a player taken in round one has a fifth-year team option. The payout for the option is always a significant pay raise, but usually well under the franchise tag number (average of the top-five highest paid players at a position). It’s one of the reasons teams will trade back into the bottom of round one.
A team can always decline the option, and many times they do, but that’s the point of using it as a measurement. If a team picks a player on day one of the draft, and four years later they don’t want that player anymore, and decline his option, wouldn’t that be considered a bust? Over the last five years, 159 players have been eligible for the fifth-year team option, and 80 of those options have not been picked up. That means that roughly 50% of every player who is picked in round one will bust.
Poor drafting is evident when measuring the options declined. From 2019-2023, the Las Vegas Raiders made seven first-round selections. Not a single one of those seven players had their fifth-year option picked up by the team. They include players like Henry Ruggs III (who is serving time in prison) and Alex Leatherwood (who?). The Raiders have been the gold standard of Draft ineptitude for the past half-decade.
By comparison, the Panthers selected five players in round one during the same span, and all five players had their options picked up (Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Haycee Horn, Ikem Ekonwu, and Bryce Young). Though feelings about Young vary among NFL fans, he has done enough to have the option exercised, which is more than can be said of every quarterback taken in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft not named Trevor Lawrence.
Players Not Eligible For The Option
The three most recent selections by the Panthers are not yet eligible for their options, but that doesn’t mean they have been busts. 2024 and 2025 first-round picks, Tet McMillan and Xavier Leggette, were top three, respectively, in targets, receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns on the team last year. Monroe Freeling has not played a snap yet, but he is not injured, which is a great start for a rookie.
The last time the Panthers missed on a player was a decade ago, when they selected Vernon Butler with the 30th pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. He started only nine games in his first four seasons, and his option was not picked up. One bust every 10 years is a better track record than almost every other franchise in the league.
Why Hasn’t The Carolina Panthers’ Draft History Yeilded More Success?
There’s more to any draft than just the first round. Those are the picks that make or break a general manager, but it’s the picks in rounds two through seven that build dynasties, and the Panthers have not blown anyone away with those picks. Sure, they struck gold with players like Chuba Hubbard (4th round) and Tommy Tremble (3rd round), but they’ve had a great deal more misses. Daviyon NIxon, Matt Corral, and Brandon Smith all had promise, but never lived up to it.
If a team hits on every single pick, every year (they never do), that still wouldn’t be enough to sustain success. Teams need to avoid injuries to those players, and football is naturally a game of attrition. The team with the most players standing (not limping) at the end of the year is usually one of the final teams in the playoffs. Finally, teams need to hit on free agent signings and trades.
The players that Carolina has brought in, instead of drafting them, have not panned out as well as their first-round picks. Players like Dontari Poe, Miles Sanders, and Matt Kalil soaked up cap room, but did not produce on the field. It’s also crazy to think that they made moves to get quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, only to let them pass through the system like bad Taco Bell, and have success somewhere else.
Regardless of the Panthers shortcomings on days two and three of the NFL Draft, in signing free agents, or the bad luck they have with injuries, one thing is clear. When it comes to picking players in the first roudn of the draft, Carolina is the best in the NFL.
