Toronto Blue Jays hitters have built a clear identity and reputation over the course of the past season, and change, that now, seems to be slipping. Their ability to grind out quality at-bats has been average at best, with the lineup sitting around four pitches per plate appearance through what can be described as a “pump-and-dump” start to the season.
Grinding Out Quality At-Bats
In some ways, the approach that taxed opposing starters during the 2025 postseason—driving up pitch counts early—still remains. Nathan Lukes, for example, battled hard against Colorado pitchers during the second series of the opening homestand. He worked deep counts against the likes of Chase Dollander and the old-school, stirrup-wearing Jimmy Herget, often fouling off tough pitches with crazy movement.
Lukes continues to do his job as a pitcher’s pest. The problem is, the Jays collectively, aren’t following suit, or getting the upper hand offensively (yet).
Long at-bats are starting with the bases empty and ending with weak contact and a lack of walks. In effect, the opposite of what we saw in last year’s postseason. That has had a trickle-down effect so far.
It’s not as though poor umpiring is to blame, either.
Proceed w. Caution re: ABS
Coming into the season, one might have assumed the ABS system would benefit the Jays’ patient approach—leading to more walks and more runners in scoring position. So far, the opposite has been true. The Jays have gone just 3-for-8 on ABS challenges through their first nine games. While the sample size is small, it raises the question of whether too much autonomy is being given to players to initiate challenges.
One example came when All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk—now on the IL with a fractured thumb—challenged a pitch from Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland. From both the broadcast and the booth (Dan Shulman and Joe Siddall), the pitch appeared clearly to be a strike—arguably catching a large portion of the zone. Challenging a pitch like that, especially on a 0–0 count with nobody on, felt unnecessary.
In a league full of alpha dog competitors, a challenge on such an obvious strike risks coming across as excessive, or even disrespectful—motivating a veteran pitcher like Freeland. The disruption to his rhythm felt avoidable. Two pitches later, Kirk grounded out to shortstop for the second out of an uneventful inning.
Again, the sample size on ABS outcomes is small, but burning a challenge that early in the game can be deflating. The Jays would go on to lose that game 2–1 in extra innings.
