The Against the Spread series bounced back somewhat in Week 3 after a less-than-ideal 0-3 record in Week 2. Splitting the four plays is not something to throw a party about, but it is a step in the right direction towards understanding this year’s teams.
The record for the season is now 5-7, but it is important to stay the course. There is no need to start panicking and placing more bets in pursuit of more wins.
The term “any given Sunday” is proven to be true nearly every week, and inexplicable losses are going to happen. While frustrating, these games are also what make sports so great.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Seahawks @ Commanders (SEA -7.5 -> -0.5) LOSS
The first leg of the two-team teaser, and the one that foiled its chances, was the Seattle Seahawks (-0.5) at the Washington Commanders. Surely this was an easy win for the defending champs against a bad team with a backup QB, right? That would not be the case, of course.
This was easily the biggest upset of the week. The Seahawks went into Washington (kinda) and played an incredibly sloppy, undisciplined game. They lost the turnover battle 3-0, including a Sam Darnold pick-six that essentially ended the game, and had absolutely zero ability to run the ball.
Anytime a team’s run-pass splits are 18 rushes to 46 passes, that usually means something has gone terribly wrong. Seattle mustered just 44 yards on the ground, which genuinely seems impossible to be true given the matchup. First-round pick Jadarian Price has struggled thus far and was clearly in the doghouse after an early fumble.
Defending a Super Bowl title, having a new offensive coordinator, and having a rookie starting running back are all difficult things to deal with. That being said, this was a game that should never have been lost by the Seahawks.
Credit to Marcus Mariota and the Commanders for showing up, but that was an embarrassing team performance from Seattle. The read was right on paper, but unfortunately, the game was played on grass.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Rams @ Broncos (DEN +2.5 -> +9.5) WIN
The second leg of the teaser was the Los Angeles Rams at the Denver Broncos (+9.5). This was the exciting, competitive contest it was expected to be. After the first half, the cover was never really in doubt for the Broncos. Had the Seahawks not failed so spectacularly in the early window, this would have been a nice, relatively low-stress way to win some money.
The Rams were ahead 16-0 at halftime, and for a minute, it seemed like Denver was reverting to their ugly Week 1 version. Luckily for the home team, they dominated the second half and went on a 30-10 scoring run. Much like last season, the Broncos stumbled early before riding clutch play down the stretch to victory, but that will not be sustainable forever.
The Rams had 225 more total yards and just under nine more minutes of time of possession. These are significant advantages, but they were nullified by penalties and turnovers. Having eight more penalties than the Broncos and a crucial pick-six in the fourth quarter were major factors in the outcome.
Denver getting 9.5 points at home was too good a value to pass up, and obviously it worked out this time, but there is clearly cause for concern right now. Something isn’t clicking between Bo Nix and OC Davis Webb, and the defense has been opportunistic but nowhere near as dominant as they were billed to be.
The good news for the Broncos and their fans is that, despite the far-from-perfect performances, they’re 2-1 and have beaten two quality teams. Time will tell if these were flukey early-season wins or proof that they are good enough to win when not at their best and will only improve from here.
Against The Spread: Panthers @ Browns (CAR -2.5) LOSS
The first single bet was the Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at the Cleveland Browns. If time machines were real and easily accessible, this would have been the game left off this week’s slate.
Looking back on it, the low line should have been a dead giveaway that this was going to be an odd game. The Panthers had put up big points in their first two games, but the opponents and situations should have been given more consideration. One game was at home, where they are much better, against a porous Bears defense, and the other was against a Falcons team that was dealing with ridiculous levels of quarterback ineptitude.
This loss was even more frustrating because a lot of Carolina’s issues were foreshadowed in the previous article. The Devin Lloyd and Nick Scott absences were painfully apparent. The Browns had 132 yards rushing, and TE Harold Fannin Jr. dominated with seven catches and two touchdowns.
On offense, the Panthers were out of sorts for the majority of the game, and Jalen Coker leaving the game injured made matters even worse. The Panthers actually ran the ball decently, averaging over four yards per carry on 23 attempts. The problem was that they were completely unbalanced and threw more than double the number of times they rushed.
The Browns are not a team that is generally going to require 48 passes to defeat. Bryce Young has been hot to start the season, but this isn’t the formula for the Panthers to be successful. It seems OC and first-time play-caller Brad Idzik lost his way in this one.
Both of these teams are difficult to read at this point, depending on the week. The moral of the story is that when two weird squads face off, maybe it’s best to just not bet on either one.
Against The Spread: Jets @ Lions (DET -6.5) WIN
The next single bet was the New York Jets at the Detroit Lions (-6.5). This was not the blowout win that was predicted, but it was a successful cover nonetheless.
This game was actually extremely close throughout, and the largest lead was only a 14-point Lions advantage in the fourth quarter that was promptly answered by a 14-0 Jets run. Thankfully, the Detroit offense responded with a touchdown drive of their own, and their defense came up with a clutch strip-sack to seal the game.
The biggest takeaways from this game were that the Lions offense is still elite, their defense is still a train wreck, and the Jets offense is actually pretty fun to watch. Jahmyr Gibbs is in a world of his own, but Jared Goff has quietly been excellent through three games. He’s thrown for 802 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions and a 67.6 QBR. Goff has always been able to put up big numbers the last few years, but whenever he struggles, it’s usually because the run game isn’t as effective. It will be interesting to see how he performs in games where Gibbs isn’t running rampant.
Geno Smith was extremely impressive in this matchup. He went 31 of 37 passing for 321 yards, three touchdowns, and zero picks. Yes, this was a loss, but he kept pace with one of the best offenses in the league, and this is looking like one of the best Jets offenses in years. They’re definitely a season or two away from being truly competitive, but they have the look of a team that is going to be in a lot of games and ruin some spreads.
Against The Spread: Cardinals @ 49ers (ARI +8.5) WIN
The last bet on the Week 3 slate was the Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) at the San Francisco 49ers. This one essentially went according to the read. It never actually felt like the Cardinals were going to win the game, but they were always within striking distance.
The Niners’ offense is operating at an elite level right now, and Brock Purdy looks like an early MVP contender. He threw for four more touchdowns against the Cards, bringing his stat line thus far to 789 passing yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, and an NFL-best 93.8 QBR. Even with the plethora of injuries they’ve already accumulated, it seems that Kyle Shanahan and Purdy have an answer every time.
The Cardinals’ offense definitely found success, as they put up 365 total yards and 30 points. They even had more than 17 more minutes of time of possession than the Niners. While impressive, that can also be partially explained by the fact that SF was scoring so quickly most of the time.
This was the first game that Jeremiyah Love was fully unleashed, and he showed exactly why he was the third overall pick this past April. He produced 21 rushes for 90 yards, along with five catches for 19 yards and a touchdown. Love had more carries in this contest than in the first two combined, and fantasy owners and Cards fans alike could be heard rejoicing. The Notre Dame alum is a spectacularly talented player, and it will be a lot of fun to see him develop in Mike LaFleur’s system with their other young skill players.
Arizona is in a similar spot as the Jets. They are both building exciting offensive cores, but are waiting on their QB of the future. Jacoby Brissett and Smith have been playing more than respectable football, but they both know they’re on borrowed time in their roles. Both could be scary teams in the next few years.
At the end of the day, a 2-2 week is not the intended result, but it is another week of information to base decisions on. Back to the grind in Week 4!
