Going into Week 3 of the NFL season, the Against the Spread chronicles have a lot to prove. Last week’s bets did not go according to plan and left a sour taste in the mouths of all who tailed. Losing is the worst, but it is a part of sports and betting.
Those picks may not have come to fruition, but the logic and thought process were there. That is why it’s time to get right back on the horse and apply that hard-won knowledge to a new slew of locks
These odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at the time this is being written and are always subject to change. Here is the Week 3 edition of Aaron Burriesci Against the Spread.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Seahawks @ Commanders (SEA -7.5 -> -0.5)
The first bet of the week is going to be a seven-point teaser, starting with the Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at the Washington Commanders. The teaser takes the point spread from Seattle -7.5 to -0.5.
This is another example of trusting a vastly superior team to handle its business accordingly. This was the approach last week with the Eagles as well, who, despite not playing very well, still were able to defeat the Titans. That is the appeal of taking seven- or seven-and-a-half-point favorites in seven-point teasers, because they are usually the clearly better team and are only required to win the game. It’s nice to have wiggle room in situations like this.
The read on this one is simply that the Seahawks have great players and are healthy for the most part, whereas the Commanders lack great players and are not healthy at all. Sam Darnold returns this week, and the entire starting offense should be back on the field together. He may be a little rusty after essentially missing the first two games of the season, but OC Brian Fleury will put him in situations to get comfortable early. Plus, this is a Washington defense that was just eviscerated by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys and should provide a soft place for Darnold to land.
The Commanders’ morale after last week may also be in the gutter. In addition to the beating they took on the scoreboard, they also lost Jayden Daniels and RG Samuel Cosmi to injuries. Daniels will definitely miss this game after dislocating his left elbow, and fellow starters Cosmi, Frankie Luvu, and Chigoziem Okonkwo will all likely join him on the sideline as well.
Marcus Mariota is a legitimate backup QB, but this is just an ugly matchup. Seattle has been a great road team under Mike Macdonald, and Washington won’t have much of a home-field advantage to speak of anyway. Bettors don’t need to overthink this one.
The Seahawks soar to an easy victory here, 34-13.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Rams @ Broncos (DEN +2.5 -> +9.5)
The second leg of the two-team teaser is the Los Angeles Rams at the Denver Broncos (+2.5) on Sunday Night Football. With the seven-point teaser in place, the spread becomes Broncos (+9.5). Denver has been on the wrong side of single bets the first two weeks of this series, so the law of averages says they’re extremely due this time around.
This should be an excellent, highly competitive primetime matchup. Denver may be an underdog here, but nobody would be surprised if they won outright. That is why, for betting purposes, having the cushion of a +9.5 spread is highly valuable in this scenario.
The Broncos have looked like two different teams in the first two games. Last week, they appeared much more put together and beat a good Jaguars team. Like this upcoming showdown with the Rams, that game was at home, which has been a huge difference-maker for them. Going back to last season, the boys in blue and orange have only lost one regular-season game at home.
The Rams are coming off a short week and will have to deal with the famous Mile High elevation. Denver is an incredibly difficult place to go into and win as a visiting team at full strength, but LA likely won’t have star receiver Puka Nacua or starting safety Kamren Kinchens. Broncos rookie RB Jonah Coleman has already been ruled out, but JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey will be able to maintain the ground game without him.
Los Angeles was not as dominant against the Giants as the scoreboard made it seem last week, and they were obviously exposed by the 49ers the week before. They just haven’t put it all together quite yet, and this doesn’t profile as the matchup for that to happen, especially without their best offensive playmaker.
The Broncos’ play elevates at home, and this seems to be a good spot for a slight upset. The +9.5 is never in danger, Denver wins outright, 21-20, and the teaser hits.
Against The Spread: Panthers @ Browns (CAR -2.5)
The first single bet of this week’s slate is the Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at the Cleveland Browns. This game has somewhat of a confusing line because, on paper, the Panthers are the much better team, and yet they’re only favored by 2.5 points.
Defensive starters Devin Lloyd and Nick Scott have both already been ruled out for Carolina, and those are significant losses for sure, but it isn’t like the Browns are a high-powered offense. The main injury to watch will be WR Jalen Coker. He practiced in a limited fashion on Friday and seems like he should be able to suit up, but he should be monitored leading up to game time.
To Cleveland’s credit, they were a much more formidable team at home than on the road last year, but they also had a man named Myles Garrett playing for them. It feels like just because the game is in Cleveland and the Browns are coming off a win against a seemingly broken Buccaneers team, all of a sudden the oddsmakers have faith in them.
The Panthers’ offense has been humming so far, and they have put up 37 and then 34 points in their first two outings. Most of the damage has been done through the air, and Bryce Young has been fantastic. He’s thrown for 648 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception, with one rushing touchdown to go along. The Browns’ defense is not a weak unit, but Trevor Lawrence diced them up with ease in Week 1, and Young could have similar success on Sunday.
Cleveland is not a good team, and that home crowd will be eager to turn on Deshaun Watson the second things start going awry. If Carolina can pounce on them early and force Watson to play from behind in front of hostile fans, that will be a recipe for success.
If the Panthers want to be considered a serious team, this isn’t a game they can afford to squander. Carolina goes into The Land and spoils their home opener. They win 24-16.
Against The Spread: Jets @ Lions (DET -6.5)
The next single bet will be the New York Jets at the Detroit Lions (-6.5). Touchdown favorites can be a dangerous bet because it is a lot of points, but this seems like a perfect storm for Detroit.
In the Dan Campbell era, the Lions have built a strong home-field advantage. Their raucous fans can rattle opposing offenses, and the indoor stadium creates a perfect environment for their high-flying offense to go to work without any interference from the elements.
Detroit is coming off extra rest after losing a shootout in Buffalo on TNF. The offense put up a ton of points, but they were outclassed by the Bills across the board. Bettors can count on an unhappy Lions team taking the field on Sunday and looking to unleash a lot of built-up frustration on a lesser squad.
Public opinion on the Jets seems to have improved quite a bit after two games, despite only beating the Titans and losing to the struggling Packers. New York certainly has looked improved from last year’s iteration, but they aren’t ready to go toe-to-toe with an offense like Detroit’s.
The Lions’ defense will likely give up some points, but Jared Goff and crew have been on fire thus far and can make up for any defensive shortcomings in this one. They should be extremely familiar with former DC and now Jets HC Aaron Glenn’s defensive scheme and use it to their full advantage.
Unfortunately for Glenn, this game will be a bit of a reality check for his team. The Lions get back on track and ground the Jets at home with a score of 42-20.
Against The Spread: Cardinals @ 49ers (ARI +8.5)
The last single play of the week is the Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) at the San Francisco 49ers. On paper, this may seem like a chance for the Niners to flex their muscles and blow out another worse team. While that could still happen, these divisional games tend to be highly contested even when one team is deemed significantly better.
The Cardinals shocked a lot of people in Week 1 when they went into SoFi Stadium as heavy underdogs and knocked off the Chargers. Yes, maybe LAC isn’t as good as they were made out to be, but that was still a game Arizona was not supposed to win.
Week 2 definitely brought the Cards back to Earth a little bit with a 31-7 defeat at the hands of the defending Super Bowl champs. In spite of the lopsided score, they were actually in that game. It was a 7-7 contest at halftime, and they were only down by 10 going into the fourth quarter. Now, getting outscored 24-0 in the second half is nothing to celebrate, but that first half and most of the third quarter are something for a rookie head coach and his team to build on.
The injuries for the Niners are piling up once again. Impact players like De’Zhaun Stribling, Ricky Pearsall, and Alfred Collins were already out, and now superstar Nick Bosa is set to miss time too. Mike Evans is questionable to play Sunday as well, but it looks like he is going to give it a go. Bosa is a major loss, and it will be interesting to see how DC Raheem Morris generates pressure without his best pass rusher.
The Cardinals have the weapons on offense to keep this game competitive and have a history of being live dogs in divisional matchups. The question is whether young Mike LaFleur can hold his own against Kyle Shanahan and get the most out of his team on the road against a better roster.
The 49ers win this game, but the Cardinals make them earn every bit of it. SF wins 27-26.
Here’s to getting back in the win column in Week 3!
