Against the Spread nearly had an undefeated run in Week 4. A winning and profitable 2-1 slate was exactly what the doctor ordered. It felt like this was finally a week when most games went as expected. It was quite rewarding to see the research and studying yield some successful results.
The quest to get back to .500 and beyond this year almost came to fruition, but it will have to wait until next time. Before then, it is time to take a look at what went right and wrong in Week 4.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Jaguars @ Bengals (JAX +2.5 -> +9.5) WIN
The first leg of the teaser was the Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at the Cincinnati Bengals. The read on this game was almost as spot-on as it can be. These were two decently evenly matched teams, and it was close throughout.
The Jaguars could have easily been the favorites, so the value of having them at +9.5 was incredible, and the cover never ended up being in any danger. Jacksonville didn’t trail at any point in this game, and despite both teams having similar stat lines, they felt in control from start to finish.
As is usually the case, turnovers were the difference in the game. The Jags had none, while the Bengals had two. The one that was a real killer was a Joe Burrow interception at the end of the first half, setting up a Jaguars touchdown to put them up by 10 at halftime. From there, they were able to play conservatively and led for the rest of the game.
Cincinnati is still a respectable team, and this wasn’t a bad loss for them. The Ja’Marr Chase concussion that forced him to miss the second half was a major hindrance to the offense. Couple that with the fact that they couldn’t run the ball at all, and it was not a recipe for success against an underrated Jags defense. 54 passes to just 15 runs is not conducive to winning a football game.
This was a refreshing no-sweat leg of a teaser. If only all of them could be this easy. That being said, Jacksonville looks legit right now. They don’t seem to have many weaknesses and can win in a variety of ways. Fans and bettors should have a lot of confidence in them going forward.
Against The Spread: 7-PT Teaser, Cowboys @ Texans (DAL +3 -> +10) WIN
The second and last leg of the teaser was the Dallas Cowboys (+10) at the Houston Texans. This one wasn’t as cut and dry as the first, but it was still a relatively stress-free cover in the end. These two games were perfect examples of how teasers can be extremely useful tools for gamblers in terms of gaining an advantage over the oddsmakers.
The read here once again ended up being accurate for the most part. Both teams came out with a ton of intensity, and it felt like a playoff atmosphere. There was constant back-and-forth, and it ended up being a Texas shootout.
Just as predicted, Nico Collins’ return was a problem all day for the Cowboys’ defense. He announced his presence with authority and finished with seven catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. As impressive as Collins was, he wasn’t even the best receiver in the game. CeeDee Lamb amassed a ridiculous 17 catches for 189 yards and the game-winning touchdown.
The offenses essentially canceled each other out, as they both put up big points and committed zero turnovers. One of the main issues that cost the Texans the game was their excessive penalties. They had 13 of them compared to only six from the Cowboys, and many of them directly kept drives alive.
Dallas did overcome a ten-point deficit in the second half, but it never seemed like they were in danger of not covering the +10 spread. The defense made just enough stops to give the offense a chance and actually stifled the Houston run game completely. David Montgomery was their leading rusher with just 24 yards.
The Texans are now in deep trouble at 0-4, while there is now some optimism around the Cowboys again at 2-2. The NFC East is as weak as it’s been in years, and it appears there is a clear opportunity for America’s Team to seize the crown once again.
Against The Spread: Broncos @ 49ers (SF -3) WIN
The first of the single bets was the Denver Broncos at the San Francisco 49ers (-3). This was a tightly contested matchup throughout, but an impressive 21-11 run in the second half by the Niners secured their fourth consecutive victory to open up the season.
San Francisco wasn’t quite as explosive offensively as they had been through their first three games, but they played close to mistake-free football. They didn’t allow a sack for the fourth straight time, had zero giveaways, and only committed one penalty for five yards. It’s no surprise, but that just goes to show how well coached and disciplined this team is.
The major turning point in this one was the Marvin Mims fumble on a punt return early in the third quarter. It was a 3-3 ballgame when that occurred and immediately resulted in a 49ers touchdown. That was the only turnover of the game, and SF would not relinquish the lead.
The Niners are a tough customer to face on the road right now, but the Broncos just do not look right. This was another poor performance from Bo Nix, and the Courtland Sutton and Jaylen Waddle duo has yet to look as formidable as it should be. Denver’s leading receiver in this game was RJ Harvey with 10 catches for 68 yards. Sutton and Waddle combined for 6 catches for 39 yards. These are problems.
The 49ers look like the best team in football currently. Kyle Juszczyk joined the brigade of injured players in this contest, but it almost seems like the mounting injuries are galvanizing the players. It will be incredibly interesting to see if all those missing players finally catch up to them in Seattle next week. That will be a must-watch game.
Against The Spread: Lions @ Panthers (DET -3.5, Buy 0.5 Point -> -3) LOSS
The final play on the Week 4 slate was the Detroit Lions (-3) at the Carolina Panthers. For the second time in as many weeks, a Panthers game was included in the segment and was not a winner. They are teetering on the edge of being permanently avoided altogether.
The frustrating part of this loss was that the game essentially went according to what was predicted. The difference was that the Carolina’s defense got a few crucial stops, and Detroit’s defense may have solidified itself as the worst in the NFL.
It was well documented that the Lions’ defense was a weakness, but goodness gracious, that was an awful showing. They made Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, and Tetairoa McMillan look like the triplets of the 90s: Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin. Young threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns, Hubbard rushed for 122 yards and two touchdowns, and McMillan racked up a monstrous 14 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns. These are good players, and this isn’t meant as any slight towards them, but they might as well have been playing seven-on-seven ball the way they were being defended.
The Lions’ offense still put up big time yards, and 26 points should be enough to win, but their defense is just not up to snuff right now. The Panthers were missing their two starting cornerbacks and still looked like the much better unit. Jared Goff did throw for 412 yards and no interceptions, but it was on 32 of 52 passes, and many of those yards did come in garbage time. The real impressive feat was that they limited Jahmyr Gibbs to just 15 carries for 46 yards.
It remains to be seen which version of the Panthers is the real one. The Lions, on the other hand, seem to have made it abundantly clear who they are. They’re an elite offense with a defense that clearly caps their ceiling as of now. In an extremely competitive division, if there isn’t major improvement on that side of the ball, Detroit’s postseason hopes could start fading in a hurry.
The undefeated slate was right there for the taking, but unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. That being said, winning weeks are not easy to come by and must be cherished. The pursuit of doing it again next week starts now!
